China to buy Repsol Assets in Argentina – Update

[China – Argentina – Spain]

China’s CNPC said offering $14.5 billion for Repsol investment – Market Watch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — China National Petroleum Corp. has offered up to $14.5 billion for a majority stake in the Argentine unit of Spanish oil company Repsol YPF SA, according to media reports published on Tuesday.

The South China Morning Post, citing unnamed sources, reported that CNPC has offered between $13.2 billion and $14.5 billion for a 75% stake in the unit.

Dow Jones Newswires reported that Repsol said last week that it had received proposals from a number of companies for a stake in the unit.

China has been acquiring energy assets as its growing economy demands more resources to support its needs.

Sinopec has also secured a deal with Brazilian firm Petrobras (PEFGF) to supply it with 150,000 barrels of crude a day this year, and 200,000 barrels per day for nine years starting in 2010, according to the state-run China Daily.

Read Full Post »

Argentina and Spanish oil giant Repsol still thinking…

[China – Argentina – Spain]

Pretty good Wall Street Journal articles hit the presses in NYC today relating to the topic of Repsol selling their assets in Argentina to China

CNOOC Says Interested In Cooperation, Not Takeovers – EFE

Argentina Still Weighs on Repsol

Repsol is playing down speculation about unloading some of its 85% stake in Argentinian oil business YPF. But shareholders must hope a deal materializes, and soon. Apart from its exposure to Argentina’s political and economic risks, YPF ties up capital that Repsol could use to develop large recent Brazilian oil discoveries.

Unfortunately, what makes it wise for Repsol to sell YPF may deter potential buyers. YPF’s reserves are declining. Buenos Aires has to approve any share sale, while Repsol has committed to keep at least a 50.1% stake until 2012.

YPF also has to satisfy domestic oil demand — where prices are capped — before it can export, paying a punitive export tax. Chinese suitors, in particular, will likely bridle at such restrictions.

Click here, or the links above to view the complete articles from the WSJ

Read Full Post »

[Commodities] — Is the rally over?

Commodity Rally May Falter on Supply, Speculators

June 29 (Bloomberg) — Commodities, heading for the first quarterly advance in a year, may struggle to repeat their gains in the next three months as supply expands and speculators sell.

Nickel may average 29 percent less in the third quarter than now, crude oil 16 percent, copper 14 percent and gasoline 10 percent, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. Hedge funds and speculators cut their bets on higher prices by 23 percent in the two weeks ended June 23, the first back-to-back drop since March, based on an index using U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. The World Bank said June 22 the global recession will be deeper than it expected three months ago.

“Commodities have gotten a little ahead of themselves,” said Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps oversee $30 billion at Morgan Asset Management in Birmingham, Alabama. “As long as there’s uncertainty about growth, that’s going to be headwind commodities won’t be able to overcome.”

Commodities rose 14 percent this quarter, led by nickel, oil and sugar, after three consecutive declines, according to the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials. This year’s 57 percent advance in oil costs, combined with widening budget deficits, may cause another global slump, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economics professor who predicted the financial crisis.

Click here to access the full article from Bloomberg

Read Full Post »

Peru ETF (EPU) launched Monday, June 22

Peru’s first exchange traded fund, MSCI All Peru Capped Index Fund (EPU), started trading yesterday, Monday June 22, 2009.

Seeking Alpha Reports:

The iShares MSCI All Peru Capped Index Fund (EPU) will allow US investors to easily access one of Latin America’s hottest markets by tracking a pure free float market cap weighted index. Its 25 names are heavily concentrated in the materials sector (65%), with a particular focus on gold, silver, and copper. Its largest holding at 19% Cia De Minas Buenaventur (BVN) who produced nearly half a million ounces of gold last year (compared to Goldcorp’s 2.4), and its second largest at 15% is Southern Copper (PCU), the biggest player in the world’s fourth largest copper producing nation.

The fund also holds an 11% weighting in Credicorp (BAP) – Peru’s largest financial firm with operations in commercial banking, insurance, and investment banking – whose shares have held up well during the crisis, and several smaller miners with operations in lead, zinc, and iron.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Now then… it is time for a few “million dollar questions.

a) Does this ETF facilitate investment in Peruvian equities for international investors?
Yes, as one of the world’s best performing benchmarks of the year, loaded with companies seeing gains of well over 60-70% from the beginning of 2009, it will indeed offer investors a way to tap into these companies not listed via ADR’s or OTC.

b) Does this ETF accurately track a Peruvian benchmark , like the Lima General Index?
Time will tell. ETF’s always claim that they do, but I won’t fully believe it until I see hard data supporting such. This ETF does not track Peru’s Lima General Index, but rather MSCI All Peru Capped Index. Click here to access a PDF that explains the methodology behind MSCI All Peru Capped Index.

c) Is now the right time to invest?

Here are some factors to consider when doing your own due diligence:

• Markets around the world are down and it seems the downward trends in recent markets might continue throughout the summer months.

• Copper, gold and silver have already had pretty amazing run ups in recent months and are Peru’s crown jewels of commodity exports (yes there are others like zinc, but lets emphasize these major Peruvian money makers for the time being).

• Volatility due to the political risk associated with the upcoming Peruvian elections in 2011 which pit two extreme candidates of the left and right against one another. Ollanta Humala, the left-wing buddy of Chavez and Keiko Fujimori, right wing, daughter of former president & dictator Alberto Fujimori.

• Recent political unrest in the Amazon region which only calmed down after heated disputes between the government and indigenous protesters lead the deaths of many Peruvian police officers and the massacre of protesters, forced to rely on wooden spears to defend themselves against high powered weapons. *** Note, this is the opinion of this sites humble and open minded Peruvian-American blogger, who can trace his ancestry on his maternal grandfathers side back to the amazon provinces of San Martin and Amazonas, Peru.

• Perceived instability (political and financial) as a result of plummiting approval ratings of President Alan Garcia, who was instrumental is creating the climate for the recent protests in the Amazon–contrary to the popular belief of those who believe his propaganda. Garcia’s administration loves to blame Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales for everything wrong with Peru and as crazy as it might be, it is a great deal like Ahmadinejad in Iran who blames the West whenever something goes wrong.

I have used this statement from Iran’s state television station about the protests occurring right now to articulate my point.

“At least 10 people were killed in the latest unrest to shake Tehran (Bagua), state television said on Sunday as Iranian leaders (President Garcia’s administration) took aim at Western “meddling” (Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales “meddling”) in the post-election tumult (Peruvian Amazon Region) that has triggered the worst crisis since the Islamic revolution (the worst political unrest in his Presidential Term).

Invest wisely my friends! More to come on this topic at the end of the week.

Analysis by Benito

Read Full Post »

Peru — Police clash with the indigenous community

AlJazeera English

Dozens of people have been killed in clashes between indigenous people and police in Peru.

The Indians have been protesting against laws which will open up communal jungle lands and water resources to oil drilling, logging and mining.

Al Jazeera’s Teresa Bo reports from Bagua Grande in Peru.

Read Full Post »

Newswire: South-South Cooperation

[Russia – Brazil] — Russia, Brazil to Buy $20 Billion IMF Bonds, Diversify Reserves

Russia and Brazil, seeking to reduce their dependence on the dollar, announced plans to buy $20 billion of bonds from the International Monetary Fund and diversify foreign-currency reserves.

[Brazil – Russia – IMF] — Brazil (and possibly Russia)to Buy $10 Billion of IMF Bonds, Mantega Says

Brazil will buy $10 billion of bonds issued by the International Monetary Fund to help the Washington-based lender provide financing to countries hurt by the financial crisis, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said.

“This is an investment that Brazil is doing with part of its reserves and making available financing so that the IMF may help emerging countries, especially developing countries which today face a shortage of capital because of the global financial crisis,” Mantega said.

Russia’s central bank said today it may cut investments in U.S. Treasuries, currently valued at as much as $140 billion, a week after China said it may reduce reliance on the dollar and U.S. bonds. Treasuries fell after Alexei Ulyukayev, first deputy chairman of Bank Rossii, said some reserves may be moved into IMF debt.

[China – Afghanistan] — Afghanistan to boost economic, security ties with China: Afghan FM

“Since the beginning of the new era in Afghanistan in late 2001,China has been among our most committed and generous friends,” Spanta, who is here for an official visit, told a seminar on Afghanistan’s role in the region.

China has been instrumental in regional consensus and international solidarity with Afghanistan, he said, noting China is also the largest investor in the war-hit country.

[China – Cameroon] — China vows to enhance friendly military co-op with Cameroon

The Chinese armed forces are willing to advance friendly cooperation with Cameroon, Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie said here Wednesday.

The Chinese armed forces attach importance to its relations with Cameroon, said Liang, adding China is ready to work together with Cameroon to raise bilateral military ties of friendly cooperation to a higher level.

Read Full Post »

The only fundamentals improving are commodities

Jim Rogers makes an real life appearance on CNBC and talks to the masses of finance news junkies in the United States.

CNBC’s website is bombarding readers with articles about this Jimmy Rogers interview. If you follow this site, or if you happen to keep your eyes and ears open for Jimmy Rogers in your daily information news sessions, you know he really is not saying anything he hasn’t said before.

Basic conclusion – when the reality of printing so much cash catches up with the major economies of the world, people are going to realize their stock gains are in worthless, debased currencies. When this happens, hard assets and the companies producing them will flourish. Demand for copper and steel are not going to disappear, but is just may greatly diminish for U.S. Bonds and Dollar assets if hyper inflation hits.

Get the picture?

Read Full Post »

Laying the foundation for a tri-nation Boliviaran mining giant in South America

[South-South Cooperation] — Ecuador, Venezuela, Bolivia

The Ecuadorian government announced plans yesterday of the establishment of a joint mining company with the country of Venezuela and possibly Bolivia. You can read all the vague details in this article from Chinamining.

“We are going to build a great mining company in association with Venezuela and perhaps with Bolivia to exploit some veins of mine ore returned to the State from private hands,”said Ecuadorian Minister of Mines and Petroleum Derlis Palacios.

Read Full Post »

Ecuador Pays 35 Cents for Defaulted Bonds in Buyback

Ecuador paid 35 cents on the dollar to holders of as much as $3.2 billion of defaulted bonds and gave creditors a second chance to sell back their securities.

The payout is 5 cents more than the minimum price set by the government and the 30-cent payout offered by Argentina in its 2005 debt restructuring. Ecuador didn’t say how many investors participated in the buyback.

The government, seeking to pressure bondholders into participating, said it won’t improve the offer to those creditors who hold out of the buyback auctions. President Rafael Correa halted payments in December on $510 million of 2012 bonds and in March on $2.7 billion of 2030 bonds, saying the securities were “illegitimate” and “illegal.” A drop in oil exports has sparked a tumble in Ecuador’s reserves.

The repurchase prices “reflect the resources of the republic and are responsive to the majority of the offers received,” Finance Minister Maria Elsa Viteri said in a statement. “The republic will not offer equal or more favorable terms to those being offered to holders of bonds presently.”

Ecuador’s stance is similar to that of Argentina after its 2005 debt settlement. Creditors holding $20 billion of the bonds Argentina defaulted on in 2001 rejected the government’s offer of about 30 cents on the dollar. Then-President Nestor Kirchner pushed legislation through congress that blocks the government from making a second offer to creditors.

Click here to access the full article from Bloomberg

Read Full Post »

Newswire: Commodities with a added bit of South-South Energy Cooperation

[Uranium] — India Bids for Stakes in Russian, Kazakh Uranium Mines to Fuel Reactors
Nuclear Power Corp. of India is bidding for stakes in uranium mines in Russia and Kazakhstan, and offered to build reactors in central Asia, Chief Executive Officer S.K. Jain said.

“We’re trying to achieve stakes in mines,” Jain said today in an interview at a Moscow nuclear forum organized by Rosatom Corp., the country’s nuclear holding company. The company is discussing buying into sites including the untapped Elkon deposit in Russia’s Far East, he added.

India, which suffers peak power shortages of as much as 17 percent, needs uranium to fuel 28 planned reactors and meet a target of adding 40,000 megawatts of nuclear generation by 2020. The second most-populous nation will seek an annual 1,500 metric tons of uranium for 60 years to fuel new reactors, Jain said.

“We’re exploring the possibility of a long-term partnership and not only for uranium supplies,” he said. India proposed building 220- to 500-megawatt reactors in Kazakhstan, which doesn’t yet have any nuclear power plants, he added.

[Crude Oil] — Crude Oil Advances as U.S. Consumer Confidence Increases, Equities Climb
Crude oil rose to a six-month high after a report showed that U.S. consumer confidence jumped to the highest level since September, signaling demand may rebound.

[Copper] — Copper Climbs in N.Y. as U.S. Consumer Sentiment Jumps Most in Six Years
Copper prices rose in New York and London after a report showed U.S. consumer sentiment jumped this month to the most positive since September.

[Gold] — Gold May Climb to Record $1,250, Standard Bank Says: Technical Analysis
Gold may target a record $1,250 an ounce as a continuation head-and-shoulders pattern may be forming within a longer-term trend, Standard Bank Group Ltd. said, citing trading patterns.

[Platinum, Palladium] — Platinum, Palladium Fall in New York on Weak Auto-Industry Demand Outlook
Platinum fell the most in two weeks in New York on concern that auto-industry demand for the metal will take longer to recover than other parts of the economy. Palladium futures also declined.

[Corn] — Corn Falls as Dry Spell Allows U.S. Farmers to Accelerate Delayed Planting
Corn fell, erasing an earlier gain, on speculation that Midwest farmers accelerated plantings delayed by rain, improving prospects for output in the U.S., the world’s largest exporter.

Read Full Post »