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Archive for the ‘Aluminium’ Category

Commodity Rally May Falter on Supply, Speculators

June 29 (Bloomberg) — Commodities, heading for the first quarterly advance in a year, may struggle to repeat their gains in the next three months as supply expands and speculators sell.

Nickel may average 29 percent less in the third quarter than now, crude oil 16 percent, copper 14 percent and gasoline 10 percent, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. Hedge funds and speculators cut their bets on higher prices by 23 percent in the two weeks ended June 23, the first back-to-back drop since March, based on an index using U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. The World Bank said June 22 the global recession will be deeper than it expected three months ago.

“Commodities have gotten a little ahead of themselves,” said Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps oversee $30 billion at Morgan Asset Management in Birmingham, Alabama. “As long as there’s uncertainty about growth, that’s going to be headwind commodities won’t be able to overcome.”

Commodities rose 14 percent this quarter, led by nickel, oil and sugar, after three consecutive declines, according to the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials. This year’s 57 percent advance in oil costs, combined with widening budget deficits, may cause another global slump, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economics professor who predicted the financial crisis.

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China will launch its first iron ore trading platform next week in a move that may lead to setting up its own pricing index and possibly exerting more influence over import costs, an official and reports said Friday.

The Rizhao International Iron Ore Trade Center will begin providing electronic commercial services for iron ore suppliers and steelmakers on Monday, said Liu Qiang, sales manager of Shandong Huaxin Trading Co., which is heading the project.

The center, a joint venture by Shandong Huaxin and four other local companies involved in bulk commodity dealings, will handle electronic transactions, information exchange, quality inspection, storage, transport, insurance and trade settlement, Liu said.

The center will act as a clearinghouse for information on iron ore trading, Liu said.

“As it gains influence in the long-term, it may have some influence on price negotiations,” he said.

Rizhao, a port in eastern China’s Shandong province, is one of the country’s biggest handlers of iron ore imports.

The trading platform would likely mainly serve China’s numerous smaller steelmakers. They buy independently from the biggest mills and do not pay the same benchmark prices the big steelmakers agree to each year in sometimes tortuous negotiations with overseas miners like Brazil’s Companhia Vale do Rio Doce SA and global miner Rio Tinto Group.

Meanwhile, the annual negotiations with overseas iron ore suppliers dragged on, according to the government-affiliated China Iron & Steel Association, which vehemently denied reports that Chinese steelmakers had settled for 30 percent to 35 percent price cuts.

“China’s steel industry and those of Japan and Korea are facing severe shocks from the global financial crisis,” CISA said in a statement posted on its Web site. It said the annual negotiations were continuing on a basis of “mutual interest and long-term stability.”

Unlike in previous years, when Shanghai-based Baosteel Group led the talks, this year CISA is handling the negotiations. Analysts say it is seeking at least a 40 percent cut in this year’s benchmark prices.

China imported 444 million tons of iron ore in 2008 – half of the volume of all imports worldwide, according to government figures. Imports in January through April surged to 188 million tons, as traders took advantage of lower prices to build up stockpiles.


Iron ore pricing has long been a point of contention between China, the world’s biggest steel producer and consumer, and foreign raw materials suppliers.

Such friction intensified in recent years as surging demand due to the booming economy and speculative buying drove prices for iron ore and other commodities higher.

But a slowing in industrial production due to the global economic crisis has raised expectations that Chinese and other steelmakers may win big concessions in this round of talks after yielding to demands for double-digit increases in ore prices in previous years.

[Source] — Associated Press researcher Ji Chen contributed to this report.

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Jim Rogers sits down with Bloomberg host Haslinda Amin in his home base of Singapore. Haslinda gets a full twenty minutes to test his patience while she asks what his opinions are on investing in a variety of investment categories. Commodities. Currencies. North American Natural Gas. Yen Carry Trade. Agriculture. Equities. ETF’s.

As usual, Jim Rogers is sticking to what he knows best-raw materials. If you’re a new reader, or have not heard of Jim Rogers definitely run a search on the right of his name to bring up past posts and videos including him.

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[China – Venezuela]CNPC, Venezuela Plan to Build Two Oil Refineries in China
China National Petroleum Corp. and Venezuela plan to build two oil refineries in China, Jiang Jiemin, the president of the Chinese company, told reporters in Beijing today.

[China – Trinadad & Tobago] Alutrint: Chinese labor needed due to lack of local expertise
China’s EXIM bank placed as a condition on its consent to provide a US$400mn loan to the Trinidad & Tobago government to build the Alutrint aluminum smelter – in the La Brea region of Trinidad island – that the project hire Chinese contractor CMEC to provide labor and technology for the plant, Alutrint manager of communications and community relations Josieann Richards told BNamericas.

[China – Russia] Chinese Envoy to Russia: Oil Pipeline Serves Strategic Goals of Both Sides
The construction of the China-Russia oil pipeline conforms with the strategic goals of China and Russia to diversify the former’s energy imports and latter’s energy exports, Chinese Ambassador to Russia Liu Guchang has said.

[South Korea – Peru]Peru hopes to complete 70% of FTA talks with Korea this week
Peru hopes to complete 70 percent of free trade negotiations with South Korea this week because of the similarities found between the two negotiating teams, allowing them to progress quickly, Peruvian chief negotiator Nathan Nadramija said Monday.

During the first round of FTA Negotiations in Seoul on March 16, both countries successfully concluded four chapters relating to electronic commerce, border services, as well as two other chapters related to institutional issues.

[India – Argentina – Bolivia] Jindal Begins Producing Gas in Bolivia for Export to Argentina
India’s Jindal Steel & Power has started producing natural gas in Bolivia that will be exported to Argentina, a company executive told Efe on Monday.

Luis Carlos Kinn, manager of Jindal subsidiary Gas to Liquids Internacional S.A., confirmed the successful completion of the first production test at the well drilled in the El Palmar field, some 50 kilometers (31 miles) from Santa Cruz, the capital of the likenamed eastern province.

[Chile – Bolivia] Chile Open to Tunnel Proposal Giving Bolivia Access to Sea
The Chilean government is willing to study the proposal by a group of architects that would provide landlocked Bolivia with access to the sea through a tunnel to an artificial island in the Pacific Ocean.

[Venezuela – Angola]Venezuelan Government Bank BANDES To Open Branch in Angola
Jesus Alberto Garcia, Venezuelan ambassador to Angola, stated in an interview with Radio Nacional de Angola that Banco de Desarrollo Económico y Social de Venezuela (BANDES), the state development bank of Venezuela, will open a branch in Angola. He added, “This is one of the main things President Chavez wants to do with Africa.” Branches of BANDES outside of Latin America and the Caribbean include Syria and the Republic of Mali.

[Latin America – Spain]Spain Wants Closer Ties with Latin America
Spain’s King Juan Carlos and Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said Monday that the upcoming bicentennials of Latin American independence should be used to promote Spanish and European Union ties to the region.

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