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Archive for the ‘Agricultural’ Category

Newswire: Jim Rogers

“I don’t see any adequate-supply situation in any commodity market over the next decade or two,” Rogers, the chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said today in an interview in New York. “The commodities boom is not over and the bull market has several years to go.”

“I own some cotton,” Rogers said. “I own some sugar,” he said. “Sugar will go much, much higher over the course of the bull market.”

“Oil could reach between $150 and $200 a barrel,” because known reserves of crude are declining, Rogers said. He said international relations, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, will help guide prices.

“Natural gas is very cheap,” he said in the interview between sessions at an ETF Securities Ltd. investor conference.

Commodities ‘Best Place’

“Commodities are the best place to be, if you ask me, based on supply and demand,” Rogers said. He said he hasn’t invested in equities outside of China in two years.

“Everything has gone through the roof,” Rogers said of equities prices, adding that he may consider buying stocks “if something collapses.”

Click here to read the complete Bloomberg article

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commodities

China Nurtures Futures Markets in Bid to Sway Commodity Prices – WSJ

ZHENGZHOU, China — Chinese leaders are concerned that their nation’s enormous economic expansion is becoming an excuse for foreign suppliers to inflate commodity costs. So, they hope to use their three futures exchanges to fight back.

“It is true we have a long-term goal of increasing our influence in terms of pricing, but to do that we have to create conditions and do it step by step,” Jiang Yang, chief futures-industry policy maker and assistant chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said in an interview. “But as the Westerners say: ‘Rome was not built in a day.’

But Beijing believes hosting big futures markets will enhance the country’s economic security by essentially advertising what the world’s biggest customer for some commodities considers a fair price. For the rest of the world, the exchanges could mean less guesswork about China’s buying habits, possibly reducing volatility in the global market.

Silver Lining: Jim Rogers Talks Up Commodities – Time Magazine

Jim Rogers’ daughters may not have been born with silver spoons in their mouths, but they’ve got them now. Not silver spoons, exactly, but silver bullion. “My little girls don’t own stocks — they own commodities,” he says, “and that’s why they’ll be able to take care of me in retirement.”

Rogers sees three big secular trends now, and he’s acting on all of them. First, America’s role as the dominant economic power is declining, so why own American stocks? (He doesn’t.) Second, China is emerging, and even though it may have crises from time to time, it is a good place to invest. (He does.) Third — and this is the biggie — emerging nations including China are greatly increasing the future demand for commodities such as oil. (He’s in with both feet.)

“Thirty years ago, 3 billion people were not even participating in the world economy, and now they are trying to live like we do,” he notes. That emerging megaforce, says Rogers, will put a supertight squeeze on commodity prices across the board, from beef to bullion.

Oil Climbs Above $73, Nat. Gas Rallies as Equities Fly High – Rigzone

Jumping toward $74 a barrel on an American holiday, crude oil rallied more than $1 from last week’s closing price, bolstered by a weaker dollar and a rise in the equities market. Also gaining today, natural gas closed 12 cents below $5 as the energy commodity continues to strengthen despite bearish fundamentals.

After rallying to an intra-day high of $73.84, the price of crude oil settled slightly lower to $73.27 on the NYMEX Monday, a gain of $1.50 from Friday’s close. Additionally, the US dollar eased against a basket of foreign currencies, helping to spur a rally in today’s commodity prices.

China Iron Ore Imports Exceed Real Demand, CISA Says – Bloomberg via Chinamining.org

Iron ore imports by China, the world’s largest buyer, have exceeded real demand by 50 million metric tons this year, the country’s steel association said.

China’s iron ore imports surged to a record this year, hurting the group’s bid to negotiate a contract price cut bigger than the 33 percent offered by Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. The nation is looking at cutting the number of licensed importers, industry minister Li Yizhong reiterated today.

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Words of wisdom, as usual, from my man Jim Rogers.

“Protectionism is getting worse and worse. I’m terribly worried about because protectionism lead to the Great Depression… I’m worried about a lot of things. A 50% rise in 6-9 months is something to worry about. You usually have corrections after that.

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[Brazil] — Brazil strengthens state control over offshore oil reserves Xinhua
Brazil announced on Monday new oil exploration rules to increase state control over its recently discovered offshore oil reserves.

Under the plan, the state-owned oil and gas giant Petrobras will be the sole operator of the new oil reserves. It will also have a minimum 30-percent stake in all future projects in the pre-salt layer fields.

Brazil Tries to Maximize Offshore Oil BonanzaLatin America Herald Tribine
Brazilian President Lula revealed the government’s plans to make Brazil one of the top 10 oil producers in the world and develop what he believes are the world’s 9th largest oil reserves, but his announcement of increased state control and further equity sales shook markets, causing Petrobras to lose $7 billion in value in one day.

Petrobras Loses $7 Billion Value as Lula Seeks Stake — Bloomberg
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s plans for the development of the country’s offshore oil fields stripped Petroleo Brasileiro SA investors of $7 billion in a day.

The proposal, announced yesterday, may allow the state to boost its stake in the company and ensure most income from oil exploration “stays in the hands of our people,” Lula said at a press conference in Brasilia. Petrobras, as the Rio de Janeiro- based company is known, led the Bovespa stock index to the biggest drop in the Americas yesterday after the announcement.

[Venezuela] — Chavez Says Venezuela Will Continue Oil Exports to U.S. Latin America Herald Tribine
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said that his country will continue exporting oil to the United States because it is in the Andean nation’s interest.

Chavez said in a statement published in the Lima daily El Comercio that “many people don’t know” that Venezuelan state oil giant PDVSA, through its Citgo subsidiary, has seven large refineries and more than 10,000 service stations on U.S. soil.

“Venezuela can’t take a decision against ourselves. We send the oil to our refineries and to our distribution systems in the United States,” he said.

Caracas Stock Market Up 3% for the Week — Up 41% for the YearLatin America Herald Tribine
The Caracas Stock Index rose 3.16% for the week to close at 49,507 mostly on the back on the continued rise of Sivensa shares on continued optimism over the buyback of its shares to be considered at its shareholders meeting next week. Sivensa shares rose sharply, closing at Bs. 16.5 for a 37.5% rise.

[Peru] — Two Wounded in Rebel Attack, Peruvian TV ReportsLatin American Herald Tribine
At least two soldiers were wounded in an attack apparently mounted by Shining Path guerrillas Monday against a counterinsurgency base in central Peru’s Junin province, Canal N television reported.

The guerrillas opened fire around 3:30 a.m. on the Jose Olaya base in the strife-torn Valley of the Apurimac and Ene rivers, known as the VRAE region, Canal N said.

[Bolivia] — Morales Named “World Hero of Mother Earth” by UN General AssemblyLatin America Herald Tribine
The president of the United Nations General Assembly, Rev. Miguel D’Escoto Brockmann, on Saturday declared Bolivian President Evo Morales as “World Hero of Mother Earth” in a ceremony at the presidential palace in this capital.

With a medal and a parchment scroll, the General Assembly of the United Nations Organization named Morales “the maximum exponent and paradigm of love for Mother Earth” in the resolution for his decoration that was read during the ceremony.

Bolivia Cries Foul Over Peru Plans for Drilling in TiticacaLatin America Herald Tribine
Bolivian President Evo Morales’ government will present a formal complaint to Peru over its plans to drill for oil in Lake Titicaca without consulting La Paz, state-run news agency ABI reported.

Hydrocarbons Minister Oscar Coca sent Bolivia’s Foreign Ministry a note requesting that a formal complaint be made since the body of water straddles the border between the two nations, ABI said.

“Since Lake Titicaca is a bi-national area, it’s obvious that there can’t be unilateral actions” and therefore the matter requires a diplomatic solution, Coca said.

[Cuba] — Cuba endeavors to raise farm output amid economic downturnXinhua
Pressured by a global economic crisis and a stern U.S. economic blockade that has lasted nearly half a century, Cuba is actively seeking ways to boost its agricultural production.

The measures include turning over land close to cities to residents to plow, replacing fuel-burning tractors with oxen, redistributing fallow land and raising the prices of state-regulated farm products.

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[China – ASEAN] China to Boost Cooperation With Asean on InvestmentsBloomberg

China wants to boost cooperation with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to develop trade and increase investment, said Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming.

[ASEAN] – Five Asean Nations May Form Rice-Trade Body, Thai Official Says Bloomberg

Five Southeast Asian nations may set up a rice-trade association next year to cooperate in stabilizing rice prices, a Thai official said.

Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar will also cooperate on other issues related to food security and production, said Chiya Yimvilai, a spokesman at a meeting of Asean economic ministers in Bangkok. The countries would also work together on developing rice products, he said.

[Venezuela – Russia] – PDVSA, Russian Group to Start $30 Billion Oil VentureBloomberg

Petroleos de Venezuela SA and a group of Russian oil companies plan to spend $30 billion on a joint venture in Venezuela’s Orinoco region.

The 40-year venture will seek to produce crude in the Junin 6 area and may expand to other Orinoco blocks, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin told reporters in St. Petersburg today after meeting with Venezuelan Vice President Ramon Carrizalez. Russian investors will include OAO Gazprom, OAO Rosneft, OAO Lukoil, TNK-BP and OAO Surgutneftegaz. The venture will be signed “in the coming months,” Sechin said.

[Mexico – Uruguay] – Mexico/Uruguay sign strategic association accord and advance tradeMecroPress

Mexico president Felipe Calderón and Uruguay’s Tabare Vazquez signed on Friday in Montevideo a Strategic Association accord to strengthen political dialogue and bilateral trade relations in the framework of the 2004 free trade agreement.

[Mexico – Colombia – Venezuela – Ecuador] Mexico offers to mediate between Colombia and Venezuela and EcuadorMecroPress
Mexican president Felipe Calderón on an official visit to Colombia offered his country’s mediation in the conflict between Bogotá and neighbouring Ecuador and Venezuela.

[Peru – Brazil] – Brazilian President to visit Peru to strengthen strategic allianceAndina
The next arrival to Lima of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will contribute to create a new strategic alliance to face Asian markets when signing several trade agreements, the President of Peru-Brazil Integration Chamber Miguel Vega Alvear.

“The arrival of Brazilian President will strengthen the progress achieved up to now in this Peru-Brazil strategic alliance and it will create a new stage in which both countries can face Asia-Pacific markets,”

a2a_linkname=”Newswire – South South Emerging Market Cooperation”;a2a_linkurl=”http://chinasouthamerica.blogspot.com/2009/08/newswire-south-south-emerging-market.html”;

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Aug 14, 2009 — State-owned Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. buys Australia’s Felix Resources Ltd. for about A$3.5 billion ($2.9 billion), reports Bloomberg

Aug 13, 2009 — Sinochem Corp., China’s biggest chemicals trader, makes an offer to buy to buy Emerald Energy Plc for 532 million pounds ($881 million). Giving Sinochem Corp., access to oil fields in Syria and Colombia, reports Bloomberg

“The Chinese don’t have enough nickel, don’t have enough oil, and they don’t have enough copper. There’s a crisis coming. They are going around the world buying up what they can. They’re preparing for a rainy day.” Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings and the author of books including “Investment Biker” and “Adventure Capitalist”, said in a telephone interview yesterday.

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Commodity Rally May Falter on Supply, Speculators

June 29 (Bloomberg) — Commodities, heading for the first quarterly advance in a year, may struggle to repeat their gains in the next three months as supply expands and speculators sell.

Nickel may average 29 percent less in the third quarter than now, crude oil 16 percent, copper 14 percent and gasoline 10 percent, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. Hedge funds and speculators cut their bets on higher prices by 23 percent in the two weeks ended June 23, the first back-to-back drop since March, based on an index using U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. The World Bank said June 22 the global recession will be deeper than it expected three months ago.

“Commodities have gotten a little ahead of themselves,” said Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps oversee $30 billion at Morgan Asset Management in Birmingham, Alabama. “As long as there’s uncertainty about growth, that’s going to be headwind commodities won’t be able to overcome.”

Commodities rose 14 percent this quarter, led by nickel, oil and sugar, after three consecutive declines, according to the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials. This year’s 57 percent advance in oil costs, combined with widening budget deficits, may cause another global slump, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economics professor who predicted the financial crisis.

Click here to access the full article from Bloomberg

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Jim Rogers makes an real life appearance on CNBC and talks to the masses of finance news junkies in the United States.

CNBC’s website is bombarding readers with articles about this Jimmy Rogers interview. If you follow this site, or if you happen to keep your eyes and ears open for Jimmy Rogers in your daily information news sessions, you know he really is not saying anything he hasn’t said before.

Basic conclusion – when the reality of printing so much cash catches up with the major economies of the world, people are going to realize their stock gains are in worthless, debased currencies. When this happens, hard assets and the companies producing them will flourish. Demand for copper and steel are not going to disappear, but is just may greatly diminish for U.S. Bonds and Dollar assets if hyper inflation hits.

Get the picture?

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Can’t seem to find part 2. Rogers covers his general view of where markets currently are and where he’s putting his money right now.

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Twenty-nine countries at the World Trade Organization criticized the United States on Wednesday for reintroducing export subsidies on US dairy products, calling the handouts a dangerous retreat into protectionism and warning of “subsidy wars.”

Brazil, speaking on behalf of 23 developing countries, told a WTO meeting that Washington was promoting a “murky protectionism” that weakens the global trading system at a time when global commerce is already shrinking at a record pace.

Australia, on behalf of agricultural exporting countries, said the announcement Saturday by US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack of subsidies for 91.000 tonnes of mainly powdered milk, butter and cheese was unfair to countries trading fairly, and potentially damaging to global economy’s recovery.

The subsidy decision under the US Dairy Export Incentive Program follows a similar move by the European Union in January.

[Source]MercoPress

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I would like to take a moment to reflect on a old post I wrote a little under a year ago, on June 19, 2008. It is one third about Southern Copper Peru (PCU), one third about sky rocketing commodity prices, and one third about a intense protest I witnessed in Tarapoto, Peru in 2002. I was in Tarapoto during a family trip to the region to visit my maternal grandfathers home town of Rioja. I may be a bit biased but the province of San Martín is a beautiful region of Peru I highly recommend people visiting Peru check out.

I’m going to reflect specifically on the third topic—the protest. If would like you can click here to read my entire post from 6/19/2008.

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In 2002 I was visiting Tarapoto, Peru. The city is located in the Peruvian province of San Martin, Peru. Rice workers had paralyzed the region because US subsidies had made locally produced rice more expensive than imported rice from the US–which ironically was also widely available in this region of Peru which a large amount of rice.

Tarapoto, Peru

By my fourth day in the city protesters had taken over the town square and blocked the roads to my grandpas home town of Rioja. As a tourist who was fortunate to have family in the city I was able to to get back to Lima before the city was forced to shut down. My family and I were woken up at 6am one morning and quickly informed by my grandpa’s brothers we needed rush through the back roads of the jungle and get to the airport as soon as possible. Once we arrived at the airport we were rushing into a back office with other tourists holding US, Canadian and European passports, until a flight could take us all to Lima… all the while protesters attempted to rush the airport gates.

It is ironic food prices are now so high, Tarapoto’s Rice industry is now growing rice and actually making a profit, although US subsidies still aren’t help the overall market. The fact and main point I am attempting to get across is that all it took for protesters to paralyze the region was to create a blockade one highway–leaving the city isolated.

Click here to view a excerpt from the only link to an English language article I was able to find that still had an active link.

If you can read Spanish, I have found two articles. The first article describes how the situation unfolded. The second article explains the accord which was eventually reached by the protesters and the government.

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Benito’s conclusion… The United States needs to re-think their protectionist policies, especially when it comes to such goods as cotton, food and other agricultural commodities. Easier said than done, but no less a necessary change that needs to happen sooner than later.

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