New potential strikes looming for Peru’s mining industry

Shougang is not the only miner down in Peru for which trouble is brewing. Peru’s national federation of mine workers said on Friday (yesterday), it is planning to hold walkouts across the entire sector next week.

libcom.org

“The position of the workers is to go on strike on Monday starting at 9 a.m. (1400 GMT) and leave the mines,” Luis Castillo, the federation’s director, told Reuters.

Reuters reports some unions have agreed to stay on the job, but considering that Peru is the largest producer of silver in the world, #2 of zinc, #3 of copper, #4 of lead, and #6 in gold—such a walk out does have the potential ripple over into global spot prices for the above mentioned metals.

When miners held a similar strike in mid-2008 and the strike helped push copper prices toward a record high—although this was at the peak of bull markets, the market effect is no less noted. The underlying point; markets are watching and investors pay attention to these kinds of things.

Company’s which will be affected include, Volcan (VOL_pb.LM), Newmont (NEM), Freeport-McMoRan’s (FXN), Xstrata’s (XTA.L), Buenaventura (BVN), Southern Copper (PCU) and BHP Billiton (BHP).

Click here to access a more details story on this topic from Reuters.

As always, CSA will keep you up to date with relevant developments as they unfold.

~ Benito

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Shougang Hierro strike approaching its end as an agreement is reached

Progress is being made down in Peru between Chinese miner Shougang Hierro and the workers who have been protesting for weeks now against unfair wages and treatment by their Chinese owners. Nothing new… for the record, there are few international companies which invest in the Peruvian mining industry and thereafter roll out the red carpet for their workers. It’s mining, not investment banking…

The 1200 striking workers have begin working again according to manager Julio Ortiz, who said they returned to work because the company said it would commit to some of the workers demands.

Currently workers earn a salary of 1,770 ($614) Peruvian soles a month and the company has released a statement saying Shougang is willing to raise the daily salary by 5.50, or 165 soles a month—bringing the new total to 1935 soles ($677).

According to this Reuters article (in Spanish), Shougang earned a solid 417 million soles last year ($144.7 million dollars), a increase over the year before of 50%.

All in all, it seems Shougang won this battle… CSA will continue to bring you updates on this matter in the weeks to come.

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Commodity Boom Will Thrive on Shortages, Rogers Says

Newswire: Jim Rogers

“I don’t see any adequate-supply situation in any commodity market over the next decade or two,” Rogers, the chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said today in an interview in New York. “The commodities boom is not over and the bull market has several years to go.”

“I own some cotton,” Rogers said. “I own some sugar,” he said. “Sugar will go much, much higher over the course of the bull market.”

“Oil could reach between $150 and $200 a barrel,” because known reserves of crude are declining, Rogers said. He said international relations, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, will help guide prices.

“Natural gas is very cheap,” he said in the interview between sessions at an ETF Securities Ltd. investor conference.

Commodities ‘Best Place’

“Commodities are the best place to be, if you ask me, based on supply and demand,” Rogers said. He said he hasn’t invested in equities outside of China in two years.

“Everything has gone through the roof,” Rogers said of equities prices, adding that he may consider buying stocks “if something collapses.”

Click here to read the complete Bloomberg article

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Newswire: Commodities

China Nurtures Futures Markets in Bid to Sway Commodity Prices – WSJ

ZHENGZHOU, China — Chinese leaders are concerned that their nation’s enormous economic expansion is becoming an excuse for foreign suppliers to inflate commodity costs. So, they hope to use their three futures exchanges to fight back.

“It is true we have a long-term goal of increasing our influence in terms of pricing, but to do that we have to create conditions and do it step by step,” Jiang Yang, chief futures-industry policy maker and assistant chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said in an interview. “But as the Westerners say: ‘Rome was not built in a day.’

But Beijing believes hosting big futures markets will enhance the country’s economic security by essentially advertising what the world’s biggest customer for some commodities considers a fair price. For the rest of the world, the exchanges could mean less guesswork about China’s buying habits, possibly reducing volatility in the global market.

Silver Lining: Jim Rogers Talks Up Commodities – Time Magazine

Jim Rogers’ daughters may not have been born with silver spoons in their mouths, but they’ve got them now. Not silver spoons, exactly, but silver bullion. “My little girls don’t own stocks — they own commodities,” he says, “and that’s why they’ll be able to take care of me in retirement.”

Rogers sees three big secular trends now, and he’s acting on all of them. First, America’s role as the dominant economic power is declining, so why own American stocks? (He doesn’t.) Second, China is emerging, and even though it may have crises from time to time, it is a good place to invest. (He does.) Third — and this is the biggie — emerging nations including China are greatly increasing the future demand for commodities such as oil. (He’s in with both feet.)

“Thirty years ago, 3 billion people were not even participating in the world economy, and now they are trying to live like we do,” he notes. That emerging megaforce, says Rogers, will put a supertight squeeze on commodity prices across the board, from beef to bullion.

Oil Climbs Above $73, Nat. Gas Rallies as Equities Fly High – Rigzone

Jumping toward $74 a barrel on an American holiday, crude oil rallied more than $1 from last week’s closing price, bolstered by a weaker dollar and a rise in the equities market. Also gaining today, natural gas closed 12 cents below $5 as the energy commodity continues to strengthen despite bearish fundamentals.

After rallying to an intra-day high of $73.84, the price of crude oil settled slightly lower to $73.27 on the NYMEX Monday, a gain of $1.50 from Friday’s close. Additionally, the US dollar eased against a basket of foreign currencies, helping to spur a rally in today’s commodity prices.

China Iron Ore Imports Exceed Real Demand, CISA Says – Bloomberg via Chinamining.org

Iron ore imports by China, the world’s largest buyer, have exceeded real demand by 50 million metric tons this year, the country’s steel association said.

China’s iron ore imports surged to a record this year, hurting the group’s bid to negotiate a contract price cut bigger than the 33 percent offered by Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. The nation is looking at cutting the number of licensed importers, industry minister Li Yizhong reiterated today.

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China’s Sinohydro to build hydroelectric project in Ecuador

Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa signed a contract today with Chinese company Sinohydro Corportation.  The company will be in charge of building the Coca-Codo-Sinclair hydroelectric project along Ecuador’s Amazon river.

The project is valued at $2 billion usd and will become Ecuadors largest hydroelectric facility.  Once completed, the hydroelectric facility will be capable of meeting 75% of the country’s total power supply, reports Xinhua.

According to this Xinhua article, the Export-Import Bank of China will cover 85 percent of the project’s total cost, with the remaining 15 percent covered by the Ecuadorian government.

President Correa said that “the launching of this project would be a historical event as it represents one of the biggest foreign investments in Ecuador and will create about 4,000 direct jobs and 15,000 indirect jobs in Ecuador.”

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Everyone wants a piece of Uruguay

Hot off the presses… “Investors from Brazil, Argentina, Basque Province of Spain AND China flock to Uruguay.” So hot in fact, the article seems to be running on “Future Standard Time,” because despite the fact it is still October 7th in the US (where I’m writing from) and in Uruguay, its quite curious how the article was published at 12:39am UTC on October 8th…

You can click the highlighted article title above to access the article directly and read all the juicy details about how Uruguay seems to be the place to be.

Interestingly enough it is not because the country is swimming in resource wealth, a cheap labor sector or any of the cliché niches of a “developing country.” Rather because of its excellent record of political stability, the existence of a judicial system which is fair and honors the law and in my opinion… also because of its unique position next door to Brazil—Uruguay’s major economic partner at the moment.

Major investments highlighted in the article include:

Argentina: No particular companies mentioned, but the article describes how Argentina’s investment community has become “disenchanted with the unorthodox policies and uncertainties of their country they have crossed to Uruguay looking for investment opportunities.”

Brazil: In Sept 2009 Brazilian food processing giant, Marfrig acquired a 51% in the Uruguayan Tannery Zenda. Zenda produces upholstery for some of the most prestigious German car brands

Spain (Basque Province): Cultural heritage links many Uruguayans to “la madre patria” aka, the mother country of Spain, and specifically to the Basque region. Finance minister Alvaro García met with Basque entrepreneurs who expressed “a firm interest to invest in different sectors.”

China: In Sept 2009, a delegation of Uruguayan entrepreneurs attended China’s International Investment and Trade Fair and returned with news Chinese investors were interested in investing in Uruguay’s infrastructure sector; including its ports, energy sector and water treatment facilities.

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October fire sale! Russian credit & Rubles accepted

Rigzone reported today that a Russian oil consortium would not have the pay the $1 billion usd Venezuela had previously requested as a down payment in order to partake in tapping Venezuela’s Orinoco oil fields.

Instead, the Russian consortium will only have to pay $600 million usd. Sounds like a nice 40% bargain to this blogger. It’s a nice deal if you ask me, which coincidentally comes on the heels of Venezuela’s securing a large credit line from Russia to buy military equipment.

Orinoco Belt Regions – [Rigzone, 10-6-09]

According to this Dow Jones Newswire published by Rigzone,

The Chavez-led government has talked about plans for nearly $70 billion in oil investments over the coming years as this oil-rich nation seeks to ramp up dwindling production numbers and boost its sagging economy.

But so far, nearly all those plans are based only on memorandums of understanding, with no solid investment commitments from foreign oil companies.

Sounds like Venezuela is becoming increasingly hungry not only for foreign investment, but also to cement its relations with a geopolitical power like the Russian Federation.

Click here to read the newswire article from Rigzone, which I must admit does a far better job at detailing the situation than the concise, and slightly cynical analysis published here at China South America (CSA).

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Chile, Copper and BHP Billiton

Newswire / CSA Commentary —

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Chile copper output rises 7.8%

Copper output in Chile, the world’s biggest producer, rose 7.8% in August from a year earlier after state-owned Codelco and BHP Billiton boosted production, the government said.

Output increased to 459,823t from 426,689t a year earlier, the country’s national statistics agency said in a statement distributed in Santiago today.

Click here to access the complete article

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Likewise, as this next article exhibits, BHP’s full year profit forecast may be substantially larger than previously thought…

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BHPB profit forecast raised 22% on copper, RBS says

BHPB’s profit after tax may be US$10.68 billion in the year ending June 30, analysts led by Warren Edney said in a report dated yesterday. Profit may be US$14.9 billion in the year ending June 30, 2011, up 11% on an earlier forecast, he said.

Click here to access the complete article

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However, we’ll see how this all plays out when BHP’s workers meet next week to vote a potential strike

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BHPB Chile copper workers to vote on strike next week

BHP Billiton workers at the Spence copper mine in Chile will vote whether to go on strike next week after rejecting the company’s latest pay offer, a union official said…

Workers may start a strike on October 3 for an indefinite period if they fail to get more of a pay increase, Mr Ramirez said yesterday…

Click here to access the complete article

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All while yet another big player in the copper sector ups their 2010 forecast of avg copper prices

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Chile’s Sonami sees 2010 avg copper price $2.50/lb

Chile’s second biggest mining association, Sonami, expects the average price of copper to rise by up to 19 percent next year, which might encourage the continuation of more copper projects in the South American nation, its president told Reuters on Monday.

The average copper price may rise to $2.50 per lb in 2010 from an average of $2.10 to $2.30 this year, Sonami’s Alfredo Ovalle said in an interview at a forum in Santiago.

Click here to access the complete article

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RBS forecasts copper prices may hit a new record by 2013

Copper is likely to reach a new high by 2013 as the market moves into a deficit and further tightens in the coming years, RBS Global Banking & Markets said on Thursday.

“Copper remains our most favoured base metal,” RBS said in a research note, in which it forecast an average cash copper price of $9,000 a tonne by 2013, a rise of more than 46% from the current cash MCU0 price on the London Metal Exchange. Benchmark three-month copper price MCU3 hit a record high of $8,940 a tonne in July 2008 and traded at $6,115 a tonne on Thursday.

“Copper’s demand prospects are not among the best but we believe copper producers will have the most difficulty in keeping up with growing demand. We forecast an underlying market deficit by 2011 and that by 2013 it will be fast approaching pre-recession tightness,” the bank said.

Copper, used extensively in construction, has doubled in price since the beginning of the year on the back of restocking from China, the world’s top consumer of the metal and on expectations of a recovery in the global growth.

…

Click here to access the full article from Mineweb

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Jim Rogers Investment strategy in time of crisis CNBC

Words of wisdom, as usual, from my man Jim Rogers.

“Protectionism is getting worse and worse. I’m terribly worried about because protectionism lead to the Great Depression… I’m worried about a lot of things. A 50% rise in 6-9 months is something to worry about. You usually have corrections after that.

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