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Archive for August, 2008

A few stories from catching up on my news readings I though i’d share.

1) Peru attracts $22.7 billion dollars of investment in mining projects according to the cover page over at www.andina.com. More good news for Peru in the international media you might say, but probably of little interest to the poorer people of Peru who are becoming and more frustrated by the lack of Peru’s steller economic growth reaching their end of society.

2) Peru-Chile cooperation, “not just a slogan,” says Chilean senator Jamie Orpis. For the past years i’ve been quite interested in how Peru and Chile have been mending century old rifts to work together. One must understand, South-South Cooperation and the entire notion of emerging markets / developing countries working with one another and establishing a cooperative setting in which to conduct business and help spur development is one thing…

Asking countries like Peru and Chile to work together, both of which have historically not thought very kindly of one another is a bit hard when there are issues looming in the background. Sensitive issues for both countries and their proud peoples such the War of the Pacific, faught over a century ago between Chile and the allied forced of Peru and Bolivia in which Chile adquired two of Peru’s most southern provinces which ended up being home to tremendous amounts of copper. Or the more recent international dispute of “who invented Pisco?”

The bottom line from the way I see it is, these two countries realize they have alot of the resources Asia needs, they are both strategically located on the Pacific coast and can be seen as a sort of gateway into South America for China and both countries officially have governments with whom are not considered part of the “Chavez Club” by the US government.

The two in other words, have found good reasons to set aside some past differences and begin to work together.

Click here to access the full story on this topic from Andina Press.

3) Petroperu may sell stock by year-end

Lima, Aug. 31 (ANDINA).- Petroleos del Peru SA probably will sell shares in Lima by yearend as state and private companies offer equity to tap rising wealth in South America’s fastest growing economy, the stock exchange’s chief executive said.

Petroperu and other state companies such as Electricidad del Peru are planning initial public offerings after a government decree this year that requires public companies to sell at least 20 percent on the market, Federico Oviedo said in an interview. …….

Click here to access the full article from Andina Press.

4) Colombian Oil Minister reports domestic output hits 585,000 b/d, allowing Colombia to extend energy self-sufficiency to 2015 from 2011. Colombia’s domestic oil production hit 585,00b/d in June, allowing the country to extend its oil self-sufficiency to 2015 from 2011, mining and energy minister Hernán Martínez Torres said in a webcast annual presentation.

The country produced an average of 531,000b/d in 2007.

Torres highlighted increased E&P activity in the country and said 54 new oil contracts had been signed with state hydrocarbons regulator ANH in 2007 with an additional 21 new contracts signed in the first six months of 2008.

While 70 new wells were drilled in 2007, 63 new wells had been drilled in the first half of 2008. The country already has met its goal to acquire 32,000km of seismic data from 2006-2010……

Click here to access the full article courtesy of BNAmericas.

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It’s been a hectic week for anyone paying attention to world news. This week, Financial markets began with the typical up one day and down the next scenario that has been playing out for the past few weeks now. Adding to it all, even more problems have emerged concerning slowing economies around the world (the US actually being an exception this time), more credit woes and a bunch of other wonderful developments that are not really helping bring back market confidence.

Add to this mix… (apologies if I miss a natural disaster affecting some region of the world, but Western media is now being dominated by the news on the hurricane front in the gulf coast)

– Two hurricanes passing over poor Cuba on route to the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. Click here to access a full article covering the storm from Reuters.

– Yet another earthquake in Sichuan province of China… yes the same province that suffered the horrible quake earlier this year in May. Click here to read more on yesterdays quake from Xinhua.


Residents gather around campfire to evade earthquake in Yinlu Village, Datian Town, Renhe District of Panzhihua City, southwest China’s Sichuan Province, August 31, 2008. Twenty-two people were dead after an earthquake measuring 6.1 on the Richter scale hit Panzhihua City on Saturday. As of 9 p.m., 17 people were reported dead and about 100 others injured in Sichuan, and five people dead and 35 others injured in neighboring Yunnan Province. The quake struck the juncture of Renhe District of Panzhihua and Huili County of the Yi Autonomous Prefecture of Liangshan at 4:30 p.m. (Beijing time). (Xinhua/Chen Haining)

– Flooding in India… massive flooding, click here to read the full updated story from AFP

You might have noticed how earlier in the week India was dominating headlines in Western press, then suddenly a tropical storm goes nasty and New Orleans takes over… leaving the quake hit region (2nd time this year now), little sympathy from the West.

I think CNN, MSNBC and Fox News are having a panic attack right about now (that is if they where living beings) because its just too darn hard to cover Obama vs McCain and all these juicy rating grabbing disasters…

Overall– things look gloomy. More updates to come concerning Commodities, South-South Cooperation and Colombia’s Oil Industry

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Everyday when you flip through news channels or search through online or print media you’ll probably see something about a US Bank or Financial Institution that has more bad news to report… Falling profits, cutting dividends, government bail outs, new credit losses, etc.

Well… Not in China.

1 — China’s “Fiscal Revenue” and total Banking Assets — Lets set the tone by beginning with China’s latest figures on its fiscal revenue and its total banks’ assets. According to Xinhua, China’s state media, China’s fiscal revenues int he first 7 months of 2008 reached 4.088 trillion yuan or in US dollars $597.6 billion.

Total banking assets, reported by the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) have reached what I thought at first was a typo…. $8.5 trillion US dollars as of June… See full article for further details on the China’s piggy bank.

Click here to access the full article from Xinhua about China’s Fiscal Revenue
Click here to access the full article from Xinhua about Chinese Banking Assets

2 — China’s Industrial and Commercial Bank becomes the most profitable bank in the world — China’s ICBC recently became the world’s most profitable bank, emerging as bright star of hope in the troubled world of banking. After-tax profit in the half of 2008 totalled 64.88 billion yuan or $9.47 billion US dollars, making it the most profitable bank in the world. Furtermore, the bank is now world’s largest by market value with total assets hitting 9.4 trillion yuan or a outstanding $1.37 trillion US dollars. Yes… I did cite that correctly — TRILLION. Check the article on Xinhua and do the conversion (they provide the figure in yuan) yourself if you don’t believe me.

Click here to access the full article for further details on non-performing loans, net fees, commission income, etc. Courtesy of Xinhua

3 — China’s Bank of Communication profit rises 81% for the 1st half of 2008 — China’s fifth largest commercial bank has reported according to Xinhua that profits are up 81% over the same period last year. Net profit came in at 15.51 billion yuan or $2.3 billon US dollars, measured by Internationally Accepted Account Standards. This translates to 0.32 yuan per share, said the Shanghai based lender on Wednesday.

The Banks total assets are valued at 2.43 trillion yuan, about $351 billion US dollars. This represents as reported by the bank a increase of 15.8% from its total assets as of the same time last year. Outstanding loans also increased substantially, totaling 1.22 trillion yuan, roughly $175 billion US dollars, a increase of 16.43% from last year.

Click here to access the rest of the article from Xinhua

4 — Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. reports net profit up 149% — One of the first banks in China to accept foreign investors, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank which is partly owned by Citigroup said this past Saturday profits for the first half of 2008 soared a whopping 149.62% from the same period in 2007.

The bank reports the huge increase in profits is a result of increasing loans, lower corporate income tax rates and greater fee income. Net profit was 6.38 billion yuan, about $933 million US dollars or 1.12 yuan per share.

Click here to access the full article from Xinhua

5 — China Minsheng Banking Corp. reports first-half profits more than double — Minsheng Bank announced yesterday profits for the first half of 2008 surged 114.29% when compared to the same period last year. The lender reported in its half-year report net profit was 6.046 billion yuan, about $880.6 million US dollars.

Minsheng reports commission charges and fees income surged 3.072 billion yuan, representing a increase in this area of 211.88% over last year. Despite currently having 612.05 billion yuan in outstanding loans, up 10.29% from 2007 and 7.39 billlion yuan in non-performing loans… the bank has reported its “non-preforming loan ratio” was down 1.21% and that much of their current debt is held in equity and bonds from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac…

In other words (my opinion now), this bank which I recall only entered the international stage in 2006 when I was resiging in China can conviently use the economies woes of Freddie and Fannie Mae in the US to blame much of its bad debt on. Banks in China definetely are not immune to default and non-performing loans… but as one can see this bank in particular can blame Freddie and Fannie for about 1.56 billion yuan of its “bad debt.” All in all, I’m sure the execs and people over at Minsheng have far less to fret about than Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase or Wachovia do…

Click here to access the full article from Xinhua

6 — China’s Merchants Bank reports 116% rise in first half profit — During the first half of 2008 net profit for China’s Merchant Bank was 13.23 billion yuan ($1.92 billion US dollars). This represents a increase of 116.42% from 2007. Net interest income accounted for a large chunk, bringing in 83.91% of its total income, while non-interest income generated 16.09%.

The bank stated the surge in net profit was mainly a result from the rapid growth of earnings on net interest, as well as sustained rapid growth of non-interest income…. Like Minsheng (look above), the bank said as of June 30th, much of its “bad debt” was in the form of Freddie and Fannie Mae bonds with a face falue of $180 million US dollars, allowing yet another Chinese bank to point the finger at the US when explaining to its shareholders some of the negative points in its financial position and accounting sheets during the first half of 2008.

Click here
to access the full article from Xinhua

7 — Argicultural Bank of China profit up 39% in first half of 2008 — The Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) has stated domestic pre-tax operating profits rose 39 percent year-on-year to 54.3 billion yuan (7.95 billion U.S. dollars) for the January-June period.

Click here to access the full story from Xinhua

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Dear Readers —

I must apologize for the lack of good quality updates these past few weeks. New responsibilities and traveling have kept me busy and left me little time to be a news hound to the extent I have been this past year or so.

As a result I’ve decided to start a new routine with this website. I will from this point forth make updates 2-4 times a week. The new style and form of these updates will consist of various links to news worthy stories from the previous days concerning commodities, south-south cooperation, international finanance, political developments (focusing on China and South America) and other relevant events from online media/ scholarly writings. Each post will also include my own personal analysis of the news articles and or about the underlying topic from their content.

I also wanted to mention that as of September 15th I will be moving out East. I begin a short trip to Singapore and Japan for 2 weeks on the 15th and will eventually be settling up shop in China in early October. I look forward to providing the best analysis of this rising, commodity hungry super-power from the ground up to all readers.

Of course you may begin to notice less links to places such as BBC, CNN (whom I don’t think I’ve really ever used as a source here since I despise them by and large), and more links to Chinese media and other media sources that use content from AP, Reuters or Bloomberg but don’t rise the same red flag some sites illicit when trying to be accessed from China. (I may even end up deleting this post before I get there). China is a great country, and despite my love of fast and free internet one must respect the rules of ones host– that is the sensitive barriers the country has in place to prevent “un-desirable” content from being published or accessed on the web.

Thanks and apologies to my daily readers that I will no longer be able to provide “breaking news” updates. I do promise to up the quality of my analysis and keep you posted with good news you won’t hear about as you watch the mind-numbing media of today’s world (CNN, Fox News I mean you).

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Bloomberg’s journalists have been speaking with good old commodity guru’s Jimmy Rogers and Marc Faber about commodities.

“I don’t see that it’s the end of the bull market,” the chairman of Rogers Holdings, said in an interview in Bangkok before speaking at an investor conference later today. “Until either a lot of supply comes on stream or the economy collapses, the bull market will continue,” he said.

Soybeans, copper, platinum and crude oil have dropped from all-time highs after a rally in the dollar curbed demand for raw materials as a hedge against inflation and concerns increased that economic growth will slow. Sixteen of the 19 commodities in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index fell this month, after the index plunged 10 percent in July, the biggest such drop in 28 years.

“I am contemplating whether it’s time to get involved in base metals again,” Rogers, 65, said today. “I haven’t bought any for awhile.”

Gold fell to the lowest since October on Aug. 15, while platinum had the biggest intraday loss since 2001. Aluminum has dropped 18 percent from a record on July 11 and Nickel is down 26 percent in the past year.

………………….


Click here
to access the full article from Bloomberg

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UBS, as reported by Bloomberg in this article (linked here) feels Brazilian companies are “among the cheapest,” trading in emerging markets.  Check the article out for yourself, and also take a look at how pretty much every emerging market is being haled as being “over-sold,” “or having “bottomed out.”  


People are in a frenzy and investors should tread carefully in these emerging markets, choosing companies that have strong fundamentals on their balance sheet, not on a geo-political scale or when a short rally in global equities occurs.

The bottom line… the health of financial markets and the macro-global economy is just not looking all that nice.

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While the the global economy slowed in 2007, China, the dragon of global economic growth recorded GDP growth of 9-10%. However, it has been a different story for Chinese stock markets and internationally listed shares.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which was just recently one of the best performing markets on the planet, rising over 200% in just a few years time… is now ranked as one of the world’s worst preforming benchmarks.

The drop was bound to happen for a variety of reasons. One reason in particular which I would like to focus on has been because of risky speculation by the common Chinese citizen.

It is not exactly a good thing when a large portion of the money moving in and our of your financial markets, particular in equities and bonds is being moved by people like this:

Investors watch the electronic board at a securities exchange in southwest China’s Chongqing Municipality, Aug. 18, 2008. Chinese shares slid more than 5 percent on Monday to a 20-month low. The Shanghai Stock Exchange closed at 2,319.87 points, down 130.74 points, or 5.33 percent, from the previous close.

Investors watch the electronic board at a securities exchange in southwest China’s Chongqing Municipality, Aug. 18, 2008. Chinese shares slid more than 5 percent on Monday to a 20-month low. The Shanghai Stock Exchange closed at 2,319.87 points, down 130.74 points, or 5.33 percent, from the previous close.

As Chinese stocks and the economy surged, and the common Chinese person for the first time in centuries had a completely new way to store their wealth. In addition to believing their money was safe, much like it is in banks, the average person was seeing their savings (invested in securities) grow… A very rare and un-heard of concept in China. Even after the introduction of modern banking in China it was rare for people to earn significant returns from interest on their deposits, not to mention growth of 200% as they recently experienced from investing in stocks.

As a result there has been a tremendous influx of money into Chinese equity markets, many times by investors choosing stocks based off lucky numbers or anonymous tips. As you can see above, even in cities such as Chongqing, which is hardly as wealthy as places like Beijing or Shanghai, people have become fascinated by the stock market. They now sit days on end watching their life savings tick up and down on gigantic boards in trading houses located throughout the country.

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Xinhua, the Chinese state media giant has reported on Peruvian initiatives to speed up the establishment of a new trade zone of the Asia-Pacific region, as some 100 delegates met in Cusco.


The “Inca Window,” for Commercialization of Commodities, a term coined at this meeting in Cusco, describes the major goals of APEC as establishing a institution and order in which the 21 members of the bloc will benefit from

1) Increased efficiency and speed in trade
2) Reduced costs associated with trade
3) A closer and more “functional” relationship between regions/ countries which will thereafter encouarge further levels of exchange and cooperation.

Peru believes that by 2010, a mechanism of “anticipated resolutions” will clarify customs obligations for imports.

Rather abstract statement if you ask me, and one few Chinese readers will have any understanding of what it truly means (in my opinion). However, it is nice to see Peru making Chinese press and thus i’ll consider it news worthy considering the focus of this site.

Actions and words being exchanged in Cusco are re-reverberating as far as China… “Cool” no?

Click here to access the full story from Xinhua

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APEC is pushing to see the creation of a Free Trade Area in including all nations in the Asia-Pacific region. It would definitely be interesting to see a true Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific region in operation. However, many obstacles remain as to what such “free trade pact” should entail– especially since it will include many countries.

I personally question how it will over-lap, conflict, or work in tandem with the various Free Trade Agreements already in existence and established by countries of Asia-Pacific region.

For instance, will this further hinder regional economic cooperation from the Andean Community or Mercosur in South America?

Will the already established FTA agreement between Chile and China and the one currently being negotiate by Peru with China cover different issues than a pan-asia one which includes China?

Updates to come after I do some digging into some of these questions and others.

Click here to access a full story pertaining to this topic, courtesey of Andina.com (Peruvian Press).

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Peru produced an average of 118,714 barrels of liquid hydrocarbons a day in July, 4.75% higher than in the previous month, state agency Perupetro said Tuesday.

Pluspetrol Peru Corp. produced 35,413 barrels a day of liquid hydrocarbons in July from Block 88, the main block in the Camisea natural gas field.

Pluspetrol Norte produced 23,074 barrels a day from its Block 1-AB and another 15,697 barrels a day in the month from Block 8.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR), or Petrobras, produced 13,980 barrels a day of liquid hydrocarbons in Block-X during the month, the report said.

……………….

Click here to access the full article from Dowjones Newswire, provided by Rigzone

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