[Commodities] — Is the rally over?

Commodity Rally May Falter on Supply, Speculators

June 29 (Bloomberg) — Commodities, heading for the first quarterly advance in a year, may struggle to repeat their gains in the next three months as supply expands and speculators sell.

Nickel may average 29 percent less in the third quarter than now, crude oil 16 percent, copper 14 percent and gasoline 10 percent, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. Hedge funds and speculators cut their bets on higher prices by 23 percent in the two weeks ended June 23, the first back-to-back drop since March, based on an index using U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. The World Bank said June 22 the global recession will be deeper than it expected three months ago.

“Commodities have gotten a little ahead of themselves,” said Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps oversee $30 billion at Morgan Asset Management in Birmingham, Alabama. “As long as there’s uncertainty about growth, that’s going to be headwind commodities won’t be able to overcome.”

Commodities rose 14 percent this quarter, led by nickel, oil and sugar, after three consecutive declines, according to the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials. This year’s 57 percent advance in oil costs, combined with widening budget deficits, may cause another global slump, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economics professor who predicted the financial crisis.

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Jim Rogers: Profit from commodities, currencies and bonds in times of crisis

Can’t seem to find part 2. Rogers covers his general view of where markets currently are and where he’s putting his money right now.

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Laying the foundation for a tri-nation Boliviaran mining giant in South America

[South-South Cooperation] — Ecuador, Venezuela, Bolivia

The Ecuadorian government announced plans yesterday of the establishment of a joint mining company with the country of Venezuela and possibly Bolivia. You can read all the vague details in this article from Chinamining.

“We are going to build a great mining company in association with Venezuela and perhaps with Bolivia to exploit some veins of mine ore returned to the State from private hands,”said Ecuadorian Minister of Mines and Petroleum Derlis Palacios.

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Newswire: Commodities with a added bit of South-South Energy Cooperation

[Uranium] — India Bids for Stakes in Russian, Kazakh Uranium Mines to Fuel Reactors
Nuclear Power Corp. of India is bidding for stakes in uranium mines in Russia and Kazakhstan, and offered to build reactors in central Asia, Chief Executive Officer S.K. Jain said.

“We’re trying to achieve stakes in mines,” Jain said today in an interview at a Moscow nuclear forum organized by Rosatom Corp., the country’s nuclear holding company. The company is discussing buying into sites including the untapped Elkon deposit in Russia’s Far East, he added.

India, which suffers peak power shortages of as much as 17 percent, needs uranium to fuel 28 planned reactors and meet a target of adding 40,000 megawatts of nuclear generation by 2020. The second most-populous nation will seek an annual 1,500 metric tons of uranium for 60 years to fuel new reactors, Jain said.

“We’re exploring the possibility of a long-term partnership and not only for uranium supplies,” he said. India proposed building 220- to 500-megawatt reactors in Kazakhstan, which doesn’t yet have any nuclear power plants, he added.

[Crude Oil] — Crude Oil Advances as U.S. Consumer Confidence Increases, Equities Climb
Crude oil rose to a six-month high after a report showed that U.S. consumer confidence jumped to the highest level since September, signaling demand may rebound.

[Copper] — Copper Climbs in N.Y. as U.S. Consumer Sentiment Jumps Most in Six Years
Copper prices rose in New York and London after a report showed U.S. consumer sentiment jumped this month to the most positive since September.

[Gold] — Gold May Climb to Record $1,250, Standard Bank Says: Technical Analysis
Gold may target a record $1,250 an ounce as a continuation head-and-shoulders pattern may be forming within a longer-term trend, Standard Bank Group Ltd. said, citing trading patterns.

[Platinum, Palladium] — Platinum, Palladium Fall in New York on Weak Auto-Industry Demand Outlook
Platinum fell the most in two weeks in New York on concern that auto-industry demand for the metal will take longer to recover than other parts of the economy. Palladium futures also declined.

[Corn] — Corn Falls as Dry Spell Allows U.S. Farmers to Accelerate Delayed Planting
Corn fell, erasing an earlier gain, on speculation that Midwest farmers accelerated plantings delayed by rain, improving prospects for output in the U.S., the world’s largest exporter.

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Weekend Newswire: Commodities

[Crude Oil] — Oil Falls on Speculation Recovery Will Falter, Reducing Global Fuel Demand
Crude oil fell the most in almost a month on concern the global economic recovery may falter, reducing demand for fuel.

[Natural Gas] — Nymex Gas Falls as Reports Show Industrial Demand Will Be Slow to Recover
Natural gas futures fell for a third day as reports showed that demand for the fuel from factories and power plants will be slow to recover during the recession.

[Copper] — Copper’s U-Shaped Base Signals Rise, StanChart Says: Technical Analysis
Copper may rise to levels not seen since October in the month ahead, as the metal forms a U-shaped base, Standard Chartered Bank said, citing trading patterns.

[Gold & Silver] — Gold Advances in N.Y. on Speculation Equity Rally May Stall; Silver Gains
Gold prices rose, extending a rally to two weeks, as investment demand increased on rising consumer prices and signs that a rally in U.S. equities may be ending. Silver futures fell.

[Platinum & Palladium] — Platinum Falls as Dim Auto Outlook Cuts Demand in N.Y.; Palladium Gains
Platinum prices fell as the U.S. auto- industry slump eroded demand for the metal used in pollution- control parts. Palladium rose for the first time this week.

[Steel] — China Steel Industry Likely to Post Loss in 2009, Baosteel Chairman Says
China’s steel industry may post a loss this year, Baosteel Group Corp. Chairman Xu Lejiang said at a conference in Shanghai today. Xu said the Chinese steel industry is oversupplied and faces severe structural problems that have been worsened by the financial crisis.

[Soybeans] — Soybeans Head for Third Weekly Gain as Demand Cuts U.S. Supply
Soybeans climbed, heading for a third weekly gain, on speculation that increased global demand may further reduce inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest grower and exporter of the crop.

[Investments] — Where Commodities Fit In Your Portfolio
Commodities are a great way to diversify your portfolio, but if you are considering allocating some money to the group, don’t expect to catch a draft in the near future, even if there are signs the worst of the global slowdown may be over.

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Jim Rogers: "We are going to have serious food shortages in a few years"

Jim Rogers sits down with Bloomberg host Haslinda Amin in his home base of Singapore. Haslinda gets a full twenty minutes to test his patience while she asks what his opinions are on investing in a variety of investment categories. Commodities. Currencies. North American Natural Gas. Yen Carry Trade. Agriculture. Equities. ETF’s.

As usual, Jim Rogers is sticking to what he knows best-raw materials. If you’re a new reader, or have not heard of Jim Rogers definitely run a search on the right of his name to bring up past posts and videos including him.

Part 1 /3

Part 2 / 3

Part 3 / 3

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Jim Rogers: Speak Mandarin, Don’t Buy America

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Newswire: Commodities

[Crude Oil] — Oil Falls in New York on Speculation Increased Supplies Will Limit Gains
Crude oil fell on speculation that last week’s 10 percent advance will be undone as U.S. inventories climb and fuel consumption declines.

Oil followed equity markets lower today, reversing gains made last week after the U.S. economy lost fewer jobs than expected. Crude inventories rose to the highest since 1990 in the week ended May 1 as fuel consumption tumbled, an Energy Department report showed last week.

[Natural Gas] — Natural Gas Declines on Speculation 22% Advance Was Excessive
Futures fell for the first time in four days on speculation last week’s 22 percent rally was unjustified.

[Copper] — Copper Futures Decline for Third Straight Session as China’s Demand Eases
Copper prices fell for the third straight session in New York on signs that demand may ease in China, the world’s biggest user of industrial metals.

[Precious Metals] — Gold, Silver Fall in N.Y. as Investment Demand Slips on Signs of Recovery
Gold and silver prices dropped in New York on speculation that investment demand will decline as more signs emerge that the global recession may have touched bottom.

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