New potential strikes looming for Peru’s mining industry

Shougang is not the only miner down in Peru for which trouble is brewing. Peru’s national federation of mine workers said on Friday (yesterday), it is planning to hold walkouts across the entire sector next week.

libcom.org

“The position of the workers is to go on strike on Monday starting at 9 a.m. (1400 GMT) and leave the mines,” Luis Castillo, the federation’s director, told Reuters.

Reuters reports some unions have agreed to stay on the job, but considering that Peru is the largest producer of silver in the world, #2 of zinc, #3 of copper, #4 of lead, and #6 in gold—such a walk out does have the potential ripple over into global spot prices for the above mentioned metals.

When miners held a similar strike in mid-2008 and the strike helped push copper prices toward a record high—although this was at the peak of bull markets, the market effect is no less noted. The underlying point; markets are watching and investors pay attention to these kinds of things.

Company’s which will be affected include, Volcan (VOL_pb.LM), Newmont (NEM), Freeport-McMoRan’s (FXN), Xstrata’s (XTA.L), Buenaventura (BVN), Southern Copper (PCU) and BHP Billiton (BHP).

Click here to access a more details story on this topic from Reuters.

As always, CSA will keep you up to date with relevant developments as they unfold.

~ Benito

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Newswire: Commodities

China Nurtures Futures Markets in Bid to Sway Commodity Prices – WSJ

ZHENGZHOU, China — Chinese leaders are concerned that their nation’s enormous economic expansion is becoming an excuse for foreign suppliers to inflate commodity costs. So, they hope to use their three futures exchanges to fight back.

“It is true we have a long-term goal of increasing our influence in terms of pricing, but to do that we have to create conditions and do it step by step,” Jiang Yang, chief futures-industry policy maker and assistant chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said in an interview. “But as the Westerners say: ‘Rome was not built in a day.’

But Beijing believes hosting big futures markets will enhance the country’s economic security by essentially advertising what the world’s biggest customer for some commodities considers a fair price. For the rest of the world, the exchanges could mean less guesswork about China’s buying habits, possibly reducing volatility in the global market.

Silver Lining: Jim Rogers Talks Up Commodities – Time Magazine

Jim Rogers’ daughters may not have been born with silver spoons in their mouths, but they’ve got them now. Not silver spoons, exactly, but silver bullion. “My little girls don’t own stocks — they own commodities,” he says, “and that’s why they’ll be able to take care of me in retirement.”

Rogers sees three big secular trends now, and he’s acting on all of them. First, America’s role as the dominant economic power is declining, so why own American stocks? (He doesn’t.) Second, China is emerging, and even though it may have crises from time to time, it is a good place to invest. (He does.) Third — and this is the biggie — emerging nations including China are greatly increasing the future demand for commodities such as oil. (He’s in with both feet.)

“Thirty years ago, 3 billion people were not even participating in the world economy, and now they are trying to live like we do,” he notes. That emerging megaforce, says Rogers, will put a supertight squeeze on commodity prices across the board, from beef to bullion.

Oil Climbs Above $73, Nat. Gas Rallies as Equities Fly High – Rigzone

Jumping toward $74 a barrel on an American holiday, crude oil rallied more than $1 from last week’s closing price, bolstered by a weaker dollar and a rise in the equities market. Also gaining today, natural gas closed 12 cents below $5 as the energy commodity continues to strengthen despite bearish fundamentals.

After rallying to an intra-day high of $73.84, the price of crude oil settled slightly lower to $73.27 on the NYMEX Monday, a gain of $1.50 from Friday’s close. Additionally, the US dollar eased against a basket of foreign currencies, helping to spur a rally in today’s commodity prices.

China Iron Ore Imports Exceed Real Demand, CISA Says – Bloomberg via Chinamining.org

Iron ore imports by China, the world’s largest buyer, have exceeded real demand by 50 million metric tons this year, the country’s steel association said.

China’s iron ore imports surged to a record this year, hurting the group’s bid to negotiate a contract price cut bigger than the 33 percent offered by Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. The nation is looking at cutting the number of licensed importers, industry minister Li Yizhong reiterated today.

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“Fear grips Chinese students in Australia” — Xinhua

Chinese students in Australia are scared for their safety following a
string of disappearances and murders involving Asians in the country.
Jia Li, 29, a University of Sydney student, said young Chinese were
staying away from late-night events and avoiding walking alone. “I
don’t go out at night and ask friends to accompany me after night
courses. I avoid the back seats in buses. I tell my boyfriend before I
go somewhere and my classmates also tell friends about their
whereabouts …

Read the full story @
http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90883/6740413.html

—
Sent from my mobile device

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Newswire: South-South / Emerging Market Cooperation

[China – ASEAN] – China to Boost Cooperation With Asean on Investments – Bloomberg

China wants to boost cooperation with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to develop trade and increase investment, said Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming.

[ASEAN] – Five Asean Nations May Form Rice-Trade Body, Thai Official Says – Bloomberg

Five Southeast Asian nations may set up a rice-trade association next year to cooperate in stabilizing rice prices, a Thai official said.

Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar will also cooperate on other issues related to food security and production, said Chiya Yimvilai, a spokesman at a meeting of Asean economic ministers in Bangkok. The countries would also work together on developing rice products, he said.

[Venezuela – Russia] – PDVSA, Russian Group to Start $30 Billion Oil Venture – Bloomberg

Petroleos de Venezuela SA and a group of Russian oil companies plan to spend $30 billion on a joint venture in Venezuela’s Orinoco region.

The 40-year venture will seek to produce crude in the Junin 6 area and may expand to other Orinoco blocks, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin told reporters in St. Petersburg today after meeting with Venezuelan Vice President Ramon Carrizalez. Russian investors will include OAO Gazprom, OAO Rosneft, OAO Lukoil, TNK-BP and OAO Surgutneftegaz. The venture will be signed “in the coming months,” Sechin said.

[Mexico – Uruguay] – Mexico/Uruguay sign strategic association accord and advance trade – MecroPress

Mexico president Felipe Calderón and Uruguay’s Tabare Vazquez signed on Friday in Montevideo a Strategic Association accord to strengthen political dialogue and bilateral trade relations in the framework of the 2004 free trade agreement.

[Mexico – Colombia – Venezuela – Ecuador] – Mexico offers to mediate between Colombia and Venezuela and Ecuador – MecroPress
Mexican president Felipe Calderón on an official visit to Colombia offered his country’s mediation in the conflict between Bogotá and neighbouring Ecuador and Venezuela.

[Peru – Brazil] – Brazilian President to visit Peru to strengthen strategic alliance – Andina
The next arrival to Lima of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will contribute to create a new strategic alliance to face Asian markets when signing several trade agreements, the President of Peru-Brazil Integration Chamber Miguel Vega Alvear.

“The arrival of Brazilian President will strengthen the progress achieved up to now in this Peru-Brazil strategic alliance and it will create a new stage in which both countries can face Asia-Pacific markets,”

a2a_linkname=”Newswire – South South Emerging Market Cooperation”;a2a_linkurl=”http://chinasouthamerica.blogspot.com/2009/08/newswire-south-south-emerging-market.html”;

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As promised… China steps up overseas investments in commodities

Aug 14, 2009 — State-owned Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. buys Australia’s Felix Resources Ltd. for about A$3.5 billion ($2.9 billion), reports Bloomberg

Aug 13, 2009 — Sinochem Corp., China’s biggest chemicals trader, makes an offer to buy to buy Emerald Energy Plc for 532 million pounds ($881 million). Giving Sinochem Corp., access to oil fields in Syria and Colombia, reports Bloomberg

“The Chinese don’t have enough nickel, don’t have enough oil, and they don’t have enough copper. There’s a crisis coming. They are going around the world buying up what they can. They’re preparing for a rainy day.” Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings and the author of books including “Investment Biker” and “Adventure Capitalist”, said in a telephone interview yesterday.

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Newswire: China

Regulate with a Big Stick, Not a Fly Swatter
China’s securities regulators should focus on sound oversight and tough discipline to protect, not merely stabilize, the market.

Three cases that came to light during the second week of May drew attention to regulatory efficiency and tight enforcement in the securities market. A former president of China Galaxy Securities, Xiao Shiqing, was arrested May 13. That same day, Sinolink Securities (SSE: 600109) announced that its chairman, Lei Bo, had been placed under investigation. And a day later, Rongtong Fund Management booted fund manager Zhang Ye for suspected involvement in so-called “rat trading.”

On the surface, these cases seem unrelated. Each involves a different context. But deep down, each is connected to how regulatory agencies shoulder their responsibilities. And now, once again, concerns have been raised about regulatory oversight and regulatory capture.

Securities legislation protects investors
Small investors’ interests are high on the agenda in the revision of China’s Securities’ Law, which will be deliberated by China’s legislature later this year.

But the country’s legal system still needs improvement to enable investors to make full use of the Securities Law, including taking steps like “collective action” against listed companies that cheat, said a senior lawmaker.

China Spends 61.2% of 2009 Investment Budget
The central government has already spent 61.2 percent of its 2009 investment budget as it pours funds into infrastructure, education and health care, the official Xinhua News Agency reported on May 27.

China’s Manufacturing Expands for Third Month, Adding to Signs of Recovery
China’s manufacturing expanded for a third month, adding to evidence that the world’s third-largest economy is recovering from its deepest slump in almost a decade.

Geithner to Tell China No One More Concerned About U.S. Deficit Than Obama
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner arrived in Beijing with a pledge that the Obama administration will control its borrowing as he sought to reassure China its holdings of U.S. government debt are safe.

China’s Steel Association Rejects Iron Ore Prices Reached by Rio, Nippon
The China Iron & Steel Association rejected an agreement on ore prices reached between Rio Tinto Plc and Nippon Steel Corp., according to a statement on the group’s Web site. The price reached between Rio and Nippon Steel doesn’t reflect changes in the global market and would result in losses for Chinese steelmakers, the group said.

Treasuries `Only Game in Town’ as China Boosts Holdings While Dollar Falls
For all the hand-wringing over the dollar’s slide, the expanding U.S. deficit and the nation’s AAA credit rating, the bond market shows international demand for American financial assets is as high as ever.

China Increases Diesel, Gasoline Prices as Much as 8%, Aiding Oil Refiners
China, the world’s second-biggest energy consumer, increased fuel prices by as much as 8 percent today, allowing the nation’s refiners to pass on climbing crude oil costs.

Prices charged by refiners to wholesalers for gasoline and diesel rose by 400 yuan ($58.57) a metric ton, the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s Beijing-based economic planning agency, said on its Web site late yesterday.

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China to launch iron ore trading platform – AP

China will launch its first iron ore trading platform next week in a move that may lead to setting up its own pricing index and possibly exerting more influence over import costs, an official and reports said Friday.

The Rizhao International Iron Ore Trade Center will begin providing electronic commercial services for iron ore suppliers and steelmakers on Monday, said Liu Qiang, sales manager of Shandong Huaxin Trading Co., which is heading the project.

The center, a joint venture by Shandong Huaxin and four other local companies involved in bulk commodity dealings, will handle electronic transactions, information exchange, quality inspection, storage, transport, insurance and trade settlement, Liu said.

The center will act as a clearinghouse for information on iron ore trading, Liu said.

“As it gains influence in the long-term, it may have some influence on price negotiations,” he said.

Rizhao, a port in eastern China’s Shandong province, is one of the country’s biggest handlers of iron ore imports.

The trading platform would likely mainly serve China’s numerous smaller steelmakers. They buy independently from the biggest mills and do not pay the same benchmark prices the big steelmakers agree to each year in sometimes tortuous negotiations with overseas miners like Brazil’s Companhia Vale do Rio Doce SA and global miner Rio Tinto Group.

Meanwhile, the annual negotiations with overseas iron ore suppliers dragged on, according to the government-affiliated China Iron & Steel Association, which vehemently denied reports that Chinese steelmakers had settled for 30 percent to 35 percent price cuts.

“China’s steel industry and those of Japan and Korea are facing severe shocks from the global financial crisis,” CISA said in a statement posted on its Web site. It said the annual negotiations were continuing on a basis of “mutual interest and long-term stability.”

Unlike in previous years, when Shanghai-based Baosteel Group led the talks, this year CISA is handling the negotiations. Analysts say it is seeking at least a 40 percent cut in this year’s benchmark prices.

China imported 444 million tons of iron ore in 2008 – half of the volume of all imports worldwide, according to government figures. Imports in January through April surged to 188 million tons, as traders took advantage of lower prices to build up stockpiles.

Iron ore pricing has long been a point of contention between China, the world’s biggest steel producer and consumer, and foreign raw materials suppliers.

Such friction intensified in recent years as surging demand due to the booming economy and speculative buying drove prices for iron ore and other commodities higher.

But a slowing in industrial production due to the global economic crisis has raised expectations that Chinese and other steelmakers may win big concessions in this round of talks after yielding to demands for double-digit increases in ore prices in previous years.

[Source] — Associated Press researcher Ji Chen contributed to this report.

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Japanese Housewives in control of $14.9 trillion in savings

Japan never ceases to amaze me. When I first traveled to the island I was an angry, impatient New Yorker. I decided to stop over in Japan to visit a old friend of mine on route to Beijing for a semester abroad.

I had no idea what I was getting into. I spoke a bit of Chinese, but no Japanese, and had prepared little else besides a youth hostel in Tokyo for my first week in the country.

I got off the subway at Asukasa, drenched in sweat from some of the worst August humidity I have ever felt in my life—and trust me I have felt bad humidity… The beginning of the Amazon in the province of San Martin, Peru or the swamps of Louisiana do not compare.

After twenty minutes of wandering I was drenched from head to toe in sweat. I walked into a laundry mat and before I could talk three workers quickly helped me inside. They handed me a glass of water, a cold washcloth and offered me a seat.

The workers got on their store computer, found map quest directions and then proceeded to carry my bags for twenty minutes up some intense hills, across ridiculous intersections and all the way to the door of my hostel. They then refused a tip. I did not even know what to say, except, “how do you say thank you in Japanese?”

“Ari-ga-to”

Today, Bloomberg ran a interesting story on the return Yen carry trade, which is when traders in Japan take out cheap loans at Japan’s 0.1% interest rate and invest it in higher yielding foreign bonds where the interest rate is higher.

The article talks about the return of “housewives.” Housewives you say? As it turns out, housewives usually manage investing their family savings. Japanese families currently have a incredible $14.9 trillion in savings!

Ron Harui of Bloomberg writes:

“They’re seeking higher returns after the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.1 percent. Investors who sell the yen against the euro would earn 3.4 percent by year-end, compared with 0.25 percent in one-year yen-denominated deposit accounts, data compiled by Bloomberg show.”

Question: If Japan has all this capital sitting on the side lines, would it not be wise to figure out a way to invest a higher portion of it in Japan?

Japan’s central bank is essentially stuck in a catch 22. On one side the low interest rate stimulates growth by encouraging lending. However, if the money being lent is invested internationally in foreign bonds that yield a higher rate of return than a Japanese savings account, the true goal maintaining low interest rates is not being achieved.

The way things stand at the moment, Japanese savers are technically helping fund Australia’s huge budget deficit through the purchase Australia’s higher yielding bonds.

I’m sure the matter is more complicated than my gross simplification. I welcome comments from someone more familiar with Japan’s financial sector.

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