Peru ETF (EPU) launched Monday, June 22

Peru’s first exchange traded fund, MSCI All Peru Capped Index Fund (EPU), started trading yesterday, Monday June 22, 2009.

Seeking Alpha Reports:

The iShares MSCI All Peru Capped Index Fund (EPU) will allow US investors to easily access one of Latin America’s hottest markets by tracking a pure free float market cap weighted index. Its 25 names are heavily concentrated in the materials sector (65%), with a particular focus on gold, silver, and copper. Its largest holding at 19% Cia De Minas Buenaventur (BVN) who produced nearly half a million ounces of gold last year (compared to Goldcorp’s 2.4), and its second largest at 15% is Southern Copper (PCU), the biggest player in the world’s fourth largest copper producing nation.

The fund also holds an 11% weighting in Credicorp (BAP) – Peru’s largest financial firm with operations in commercial banking, insurance, and investment banking – whose shares have held up well during the crisis, and several smaller miners with operations in lead, zinc, and iron.
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Now then… it is time for a few “million dollar questions.

a) Does this ETF facilitate investment in Peruvian equities for international investors?
Yes, as one of the world’s best performing benchmarks of the year, loaded with companies seeing gains of well over 60-70% from the beginning of 2009, it will indeed offer investors a way to tap into these companies not listed via ADR’s or OTC.

b) Does this ETF accurately track a Peruvian benchmark , like the Lima General Index?
Time will tell. ETF’s always claim that they do, but I won’t fully believe it until I see hard data supporting such. This ETF does not track Peru’s Lima General Index, but rather MSCI All Peru Capped Index. Click here to access a PDF that explains the methodology behind MSCI All Peru Capped Index.

c) Is now the right time to invest?

Here are some factors to consider when doing your own due diligence:

• Markets around the world are down and it seems the downward trends in recent markets might continue throughout the summer months.

• Copper, gold and silver have already had pretty amazing run ups in recent months and are Peru’s crown jewels of commodity exports (yes there are others like zinc, but lets emphasize these major Peruvian money makers for the time being).

• Volatility due to the political risk associated with the upcoming Peruvian elections in 2011 which pit two extreme candidates of the left and right against one another. Ollanta Humala, the left-wing buddy of Chavez and Keiko Fujimori, right wing, daughter of former president & dictator Alberto Fujimori.

• Recent political unrest in the Amazon region which only calmed down after heated disputes between the government and indigenous protesters lead the deaths of many Peruvian police officers and the massacre of protesters, forced to rely on wooden spears to defend themselves against high powered weapons. *** Note, this is the opinion of this sites humble and open minded Peruvian-American blogger, who can trace his ancestry on his maternal grandfathers side back to the amazon provinces of San Martin and Amazonas, Peru.

• Perceived instability (political and financial) as a result of plummiting approval ratings of President Alan Garcia, who was instrumental is creating the climate for the recent protests in the Amazon–contrary to the popular belief of those who believe his propaganda. Garcia’s administration loves to blame Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales for everything wrong with Peru and as crazy as it might be, it is a great deal like Ahmadinejad in Iran who blames the West whenever something goes wrong.

I have used this statement from Iran’s state television station about the protests occurring right now to articulate my point.

“At least 10 people were killed in the latest unrest to shake Tehran (Bagua), state television said on Sunday as Iranian leaders (President Garcia’s administration) took aim at Western “meddling” (Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales “meddling”) in the post-election tumult (Peruvian Amazon Region) that has triggered the worst crisis since the Islamic revolution (the worst political unrest in his Presidential Term).

Invest wisely my friends! More to come on this topic at the end of the week.

Analysis by Benito

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Corporacion Andina de Fomento Sells $1 Billion of 10-Year Notes

Corporacion Andina de Fomento sold $1 billion of 10-year notes, according to a person familiar with the transaction.

CAF sold the bonds to yield 4.5 percentage points above U.S. Treasuries, said the person, who declined to be identified.

[Source] — Bloomberg

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Japanese Housewives in control of $14.9 trillion in savings

Japan never ceases to amaze me. When I first traveled to the island I was an angry, impatient New Yorker. I decided to stop over in Japan to visit a old friend of mine on route to Beijing for a semester abroad.

I had no idea what I was getting into. I spoke a bit of Chinese, but no Japanese, and had prepared little else besides a youth hostel in Tokyo for my first week in the country.

I got off the subway at Asukasa, drenched in sweat from some of the worst August humidity I have ever felt in my life—and trust me I have felt bad humidity… The beginning of the Amazon in the province of San Martin, Peru or the swamps of Louisiana do not compare.

After twenty minutes of wandering I was drenched from head to toe in sweat. I walked into a laundry mat and before I could talk three workers quickly helped me inside. They handed me a glass of water, a cold washcloth and offered me a seat.

The workers got on their store computer, found map quest directions and then proceeded to carry my bags for twenty minutes up some intense hills, across ridiculous intersections and all the way to the door of my hostel. They then refused a tip. I did not even know what to say, except, “how do you say thank you in Japanese?”

“Ari-ga-to”

Today, Bloomberg ran a interesting story on the return Yen carry trade, which is when traders in Japan take out cheap loans at Japan’s 0.1% interest rate and invest it in higher yielding foreign bonds where the interest rate is higher.

The article talks about the return of “housewives.” Housewives you say? As it turns out, housewives usually manage investing their family savings. Japanese families currently have a incredible $14.9 trillion in savings!

Ron Harui of Bloomberg writes:

“They’re seeking higher returns after the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.1 percent. Investors who sell the yen against the euro would earn 3.4 percent by year-end, compared with 0.25 percent in one-year yen-denominated deposit accounts, data compiled by Bloomberg show.”

Question: If Japan has all this capital sitting on the side lines, would it not be wise to figure out a way to invest a higher portion of it in Japan?

Japan’s central bank is essentially stuck in a catch 22. On one side the low interest rate stimulates growth by encouraging lending. However, if the money being lent is invested internationally in foreign bonds that yield a higher rate of return than a Japanese savings account, the true goal maintaining low interest rates is not being achieved.

The way things stand at the moment, Japanese savers are technically helping fund Australia’s huge budget deficit through the purchase Australia’s higher yielding bonds.

I’m sure the matter is more complicated than my gross simplification. I welcome comments from someone more familiar with Japan’s financial sector.

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