Commodity Boom Will Thrive on Shortages, Rogers Says

Newswire: Jim Rogers

“I don’t see any adequate-supply situation in any commodity market over the next decade or two,” Rogers, the chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said today in an interview in New York. “The commodities boom is not over and the bull market has several years to go.”

“I own some cotton,” Rogers said. “I own some sugar,” he said. “Sugar will go much, much higher over the course of the bull market.”

“Oil could reach between $150 and $200 a barrel,” because known reserves of crude are declining, Rogers said. He said international relations, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, will help guide prices.

“Natural gas is very cheap,” he said in the interview between sessions at an ETF Securities Ltd. investor conference.

Commodities ‘Best Place’

“Commodities are the best place to be, if you ask me, based on supply and demand,” Rogers said. He said he hasn’t invested in equities outside of China in two years.

“Everything has gone through the roof,” Rogers said of equities prices, adding that he may consider buying stocks “if something collapses.”

Click here to read the complete Bloomberg article

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Newswire: Commodities

China Nurtures Futures Markets in Bid to Sway Commodity Prices – WSJ

ZHENGZHOU, China — Chinese leaders are concerned that their nation’s enormous economic expansion is becoming an excuse for foreign suppliers to inflate commodity costs. So, they hope to use their three futures exchanges to fight back.

“It is true we have a long-term goal of increasing our influence in terms of pricing, but to do that we have to create conditions and do it step by step,” Jiang Yang, chief futures-industry policy maker and assistant chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said in an interview. “But as the Westerners say: ‘Rome was not built in a day.’

But Beijing believes hosting big futures markets will enhance the country’s economic security by essentially advertising what the world’s biggest customer for some commodities considers a fair price. For the rest of the world, the exchanges could mean less guesswork about China’s buying habits, possibly reducing volatility in the global market.

Silver Lining: Jim Rogers Talks Up Commodities – Time Magazine

Jim Rogers’ daughters may not have been born with silver spoons in their mouths, but they’ve got them now. Not silver spoons, exactly, but silver bullion. “My little girls don’t own stocks — they own commodities,” he says, “and that’s why they’ll be able to take care of me in retirement.”

Rogers sees three big secular trends now, and he’s acting on all of them. First, America’s role as the dominant economic power is declining, so why own American stocks? (He doesn’t.) Second, China is emerging, and even though it may have crises from time to time, it is a good place to invest. (He does.) Third — and this is the biggie — emerging nations including China are greatly increasing the future demand for commodities such as oil. (He’s in with both feet.)

“Thirty years ago, 3 billion people were not even participating in the world economy, and now they are trying to live like we do,” he notes. That emerging megaforce, says Rogers, will put a supertight squeeze on commodity prices across the board, from beef to bullion.

Oil Climbs Above $73, Nat. Gas Rallies as Equities Fly High – Rigzone

Jumping toward $74 a barrel on an American holiday, crude oil rallied more than $1 from last week’s closing price, bolstered by a weaker dollar and a rise in the equities market. Also gaining today, natural gas closed 12 cents below $5 as the energy commodity continues to strengthen despite bearish fundamentals.

After rallying to an intra-day high of $73.84, the price of crude oil settled slightly lower to $73.27 on the NYMEX Monday, a gain of $1.50 from Friday’s close. Additionally, the US dollar eased against a basket of foreign currencies, helping to spur a rally in today’s commodity prices.

China Iron Ore Imports Exceed Real Demand, CISA Says – Bloomberg via Chinamining.org

Iron ore imports by China, the world’s largest buyer, have exceeded real demand by 50 million metric tons this year, the country’s steel association said.

China’s iron ore imports surged to a record this year, hurting the group’s bid to negotiate a contract price cut bigger than the 33 percent offered by Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. The nation is looking at cutting the number of licensed importers, industry minister Li Yizhong reiterated today.

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South America; Energy Newswire

[Venezuela & Ecuador]— Venezuela, Ecuador Exploring for Gas in Gulf of Guayaquil

Venezuela and Ecuador’s state energy firms said Wednesday that exploration is under way at a test well in Ecuador’s Gulf of Guayaquil, with expectations of finding up to 1.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

The two firms, Petroecuador and Petroleos de Venezuela, or PdVSA, announced their plans a year ago to drill for gas in the gulf’s 300,000-hectare block 4.

[Colombia] — Petrolifera Executes Onshore Colombian License Contract with ANH

Petrolifera has executed the Magdalena exploration contract with the Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos (“ANH”) for the conversion of the Sierra Nevada II TEA into the Magdalena License, covering lands adjacent to the company’s Sierra Nevada License in the Lower Magdalena Valley, onshore Colombia. The Magdalena License comprises approximately 595,000 acres that is considered to be mainly prospective for natural gas and natural gas liquids. The minimum work commitment associated with the Magdalena License for the initial 15 month phase is primarily 150km2 of 3D seismic. As required by ANH, Petrolifera has established and funded a US $4.1MM trust, which in effect funds the assigned value of the initial work commitment of the License.

[Brazil] — Chevron: New Oil Law Reduces Opportunities in Brazil

Changes to Brazil’s oil laws don’t allow much space for international oil companies to take part in recent offshore oil finds, the vice president for global upstream and gas at U.S. oil major Chevron Corp. said Wednesday.

In September, Brazil’s government proposed changes to the country’s regulatory framework, giving the government a greater stake in the discoveries and state-run energy giant Petrobras the lead role in development.

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October fire sale! Russian credit & Rubles accepted

Rigzone reported today that a Russian oil consortium would not have the pay the $1 billion usd Venezuela had previously requested as a down payment in order to partake in tapping Venezuela’s Orinoco oil fields.

Instead, the Russian consortium will only have to pay $600 million usd. Sounds like a nice 40% bargain to this blogger. It’s a nice deal if you ask me, which coincidentally comes on the heels of Venezuela’s securing a large credit line from Russia to buy military equipment.

Orinoco Belt Regions – [Rigzone, 10-6-09]

According to this Dow Jones Newswire published by Rigzone,

The Chavez-led government has talked about plans for nearly $70 billion in oil investments over the coming years as this oil-rich nation seeks to ramp up dwindling production numbers and boost its sagging economy.

But so far, nearly all those plans are based only on memorandums of understanding, with no solid investment commitments from foreign oil companies.

Sounds like Venezuela is becoming increasingly hungry not only for foreign investment, but also to cement its relations with a geopolitical power like the Russian Federation.

Click here to read the newswire article from Rigzone, which I must admit does a far better job at detailing the situation than the concise, and slightly cynical analysis published here at China South America (CSA).

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Studies to Eliminate Dollar in Brazil-China Trade Going Slow

China and Brazil have created a work group to study the possibility of implementation of a bilateral trade program in their respective currencies, in replacement of the North American dollar, said a source in the Central Bank of Brazil.

“The negotiations are still in an initial phase, with a work group having been created with representatives of Brazil and China, who also met during the G-20 summit, in London,” explained a source.

The next step should be the visit of a Central Bank of Brazil delegation to China, “despite there being no forecast as to when it may come true,” said the source.

The work group should analyze the “results to be reached through an agreement that China recently established with Argentina” – the first country in South America to benefit from trade exchanges in the same currency with the Asian giant and with whom Brazil has also been developing the same program since September 2008.

The Central Banks of China and Brazil are also going to develop a “study of the potential bilateral trade volume to analyze the possibility of an agreement.”

Click here to read the full article

Written by Newsroom
Wednesday, 16 September 2009
[Source] – brazzilmag.com

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Newswire: South America

[Brazil] — Brazil strengthens state control over offshore oil reserves — Xinhua
Brazil announced on Monday new oil exploration rules to increase state control over its recently discovered offshore oil reserves.

Under the plan, the state-owned oil and gas giant Petrobras will be the sole operator of the new oil reserves. It will also have a minimum 30-percent stake in all future projects in the pre-salt layer fields.

Brazil Tries to Maximize Offshore Oil Bonanza— Latin America Herald Tribine
Brazilian President Lula revealed the government’s plans to make Brazil one of the top 10 oil producers in the world and develop what he believes are the world’s 9th largest oil reserves, but his announcement of increased state control and further equity sales shook markets, causing Petrobras to lose $7 billion in value in one day.

Petrobras Loses $7 Billion Value as Lula Seeks Stake — Bloomberg
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s plans for the development of the country’s offshore oil fields stripped Petroleo Brasileiro SA investors of $7 billion in a day.

The proposal, announced yesterday, may allow the state to boost its stake in the company and ensure most income from oil exploration “stays in the hands of our people,” Lula said at a press conference in Brasilia. Petrobras, as the Rio de Janeiro- based company is known, led the Bovespa stock index to the biggest drop in the Americas yesterday after the announcement.

[Venezuela] — Chavez Says Venezuela Will Continue Oil Exports to U.S. — Latin America Herald Tribine
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said that his country will continue exporting oil to the United States because it is in the Andean nation’s interest.

Chavez said in a statement published in the Lima daily El Comercio that “many people don’t know” that Venezuelan state oil giant PDVSA, through its Citgo subsidiary, has seven large refineries and more than 10,000 service stations on U.S. soil.

“Venezuela can’t take a decision against ourselves. We send the oil to our refineries and to our distribution systems in the United States,” he said.

Caracas Stock Market Up 3% for the Week — Up 41% for the Year — Latin America Herald Tribine
The Caracas Stock Index rose 3.16% for the week to close at 49,507 mostly on the back on the continued rise of Sivensa shares on continued optimism over the buyback of its shares to be considered at its shareholders meeting next week. Sivensa shares rose sharply, closing at Bs. 16.5 for a 37.5% rise.

[Peru] — Two Wounded in Rebel Attack, Peruvian TV Reports — Latin American Herald Tribine
At least two soldiers were wounded in an attack apparently mounted by Shining Path guerrillas Monday against a counterinsurgency base in central Peru’s Junin province, Canal N television reported.

The guerrillas opened fire around 3:30 a.m. on the Jose Olaya base in the strife-torn Valley of the Apurimac and Ene rivers, known as the VRAE region, Canal N said.

[Bolivia] — Morales Named “World Hero of Mother Earth” by UN General Assembly— Latin America Herald Tribine
The president of the United Nations General Assembly, Rev. Miguel D’Escoto Brockmann, on Saturday declared Bolivian President Evo Morales as “World Hero of Mother Earth” in a ceremony at the presidential palace in this capital.

With a medal and a parchment scroll, the General Assembly of the United Nations Organization named Morales “the maximum exponent and paradigm of love for Mother Earth” in the resolution for his decoration that was read during the ceremony.

Bolivia Cries Foul Over Peru Plans for Drilling in Titicaca — Latin America Herald Tribine
Bolivian President Evo Morales’ government will present a formal complaint to Peru over its plans to drill for oil in Lake Titicaca without consulting La Paz, state-run news agency ABI reported.

Hydrocarbons Minister Oscar Coca sent Bolivia’s Foreign Ministry a note requesting that a formal complaint be made since the body of water straddles the border between the two nations, ABI said.

“Since Lake Titicaca is a bi-national area, it’s obvious that there can’t be unilateral actions” and therefore the matter requires a diplomatic solution, Coca said.

[Cuba] — Cuba endeavors to raise farm output amid economic downturn — Xinhua
Pressured by a global economic crisis and a stern U.S. economic blockade that has lasted nearly half a century, Cuba is actively seeking ways to boost its agricultural production.

The measures include turning over land close to cities to residents to plow, replacing fuel-burning tractors with oxen, redistributing fallow land and raising the prices of state-regulated farm products.

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China’s ethnic regions also home to abundant mineral wealth

Two articles grabbed my attention from Chinamining.org this morning. They both relate to the fact China’s ethnic regions also happen to be home to a great proportion of the countries commodity and energy wealth.

You can click on the titles of each respective article to access the stories in full from Chinamining.org.

–> Tibet has copper ore reserves of 30 mln t, half of China’s total

Southwest China’s Tibet Autonomous Region has geological copper ore reserves of more than 30 million tons, accounting for over a half of the country’s total, according to the region’s geological prospecting bureau.

The bureau director said that Tibet is the largest region in China by its copper resources reserves. By 2008, 329 copper ore deposits had been found in the region, including 11 large deposits and six mid-size ones. Its Qulong copper ore mine, the largest one in Asia, is estimated to possess copper reserves of more than 10 million tons.

Tibet – Potala Palace
[Photo I personally took during a trip I made to
the region in December 2006, Bennett A. Reiss]

–> 1st Kunming Mining & Cooperation Forum (Sept 2-4, 2009)

Entering the 21st century, the global mining industry is writing a new chapter. It is an era of resource economy. Mining market becomes more open and capitalized. Mineral exploring as well as financing becomes more diversified.

Yunnan is rich in natural resources, known as “the Kingdom of non-ferrous metals”. More than 150 kinds of minerals have been proved there, accounting for 92.6% of Chinese total. Among the proved 92 minerals, 9 of them have the largest reserves in China and 21 of them are listed within top three. Mining as one of the five pillar industries in Yunnan plays an important role in the development of the local economy.

Earlier this summer another ethnic region grabbed world headlines. Does the region of Xinjiang ring any bells? Xinjiang is home to a large number of China’s ethnic Muslims, is culturally quite similar to other republics in central Asia and is often referred to as East Turkestan. Xinjiang is also on track to become China’s most important oil and gas producing region.

This article, “Xinjiang’s oil and gas equivalent ranks first in China” is from little over a year ago (July 2008), asserts that Xinjiang has already passed Daqing (China’s other oil producing region) as the number region in oil and gas output.

As one hand seizes development, the other taps into the potential to allow Xinjiang’s oil output to soar. The latest statistics show that Xinjiang’s annual oil and gas equivalent output has already exceeded that in Daqing and ranks the first in the country.

The third national resources evaluation shows that: Xinjiang’s total oil and natural gas resource reserves exceeded 30 billion tons. Although it is rich in resources, Xinjiang still requires development and a reduction in consumption. Recently, Xinjiang has been producing 75,000 tons of crude oil daily, occupying 14.4 percent of the country’s daily crude oil output. In 2007, Xinjiang’s oil and gas equivalent reached 44.94 million tons, and ranked at the top.

In all likelihood, the development of commodity sectors in these regions will be controlled by Beijing…not locals. What industries can these regions develop as to diversify their economic development from commodity sector led growth?

Yunnan and Tibet have great potential for becoming tourist meccas in China. Yunnan, the less politically sensitive of the two, has already emerged as one of China’s most popular tourist destinations.

Furthermore, Yunnan’s strategic location in SE Asia put it in a good place to be at the center of the future growth of trade and exchange between China and the countries of Vietnam, Myanmar and Laos.

[Map courtesy of leafgovso.co.uk]

Tibetan tourism is growing as well, but remains inhibited by the sporadic changing of restrictions and the need to acquire a special internal visa or permission to visit.

When analyzing this situation from a the perspective of the people in the Chinese government determining domestic policy, China can not and will not simply let three of its most resource rich regions control the development their natural resource industries.

Sad as it may be for some members of the minority groups in these regions, one thing is sure–Xinjiang, Tibet and Yunnan are all going to remain integral pieces of China for a long time and be subject to increased inflows of ethnic Han Chinese seeking economic opportunities.

Let me clearly state, the opinions expressed in this analysis not reflect how I the author, (Bennett A. Reiss) feel on a personal level. Allow me to try to put things into perspective with two analogies which I feel help explain the Chinese point of view.

Canada is full of resources from top to bottom. I am by no means an expert, but I highly doubt the Eskimo and Native American populations have much say about development of Canadian mining and energy companies in their ancestral territories.

Likewise, a more mainstream analogy might be the US in Iraq. To the “logic” driven Chinese bureaucrat, China is far more justified in their domestic policy towards these resource rich regions than the United States is in Iraq. On the surface the US is subjugating a foreign population in a country half way across the globe from its own territory. China in its own official opinion is not subjecting anyone, and to further add to the Chinese argument, these regions have been a part of China for centuries if not thousands of years.

Even if your feelings on the war in Iraq produce other rationalizations for the US invasion (outside of oil), try to justify this to a country with over 1.4 billion people to feed and improve the lives of.

I welcome debate in this area to any readers who would like to discuss this topic further.

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Sinopec’s profit soars; announces plans to boost oversea expansion

Sinopec’s (a.k.a China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.) net income rose at least tenfold to 22 billion yuan ($3.22 billion usd) in the second quarter according to this Bloomberg article.

The company has also announced it is planning a “rapid” overseas expansion in order to secure energy supply adequate to feed Chinese demand.

[Sinopec I passed on a bus ride to Shanxi, October – 2006]

The announcement, along with the company’s record gains in profit come as other global giants in the energy industry such as Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon Mobil have seen their earnings decline as prices plummeted and demand waned when the global slowdown ensued at the end of 2008.

According to Bloomberg, Sinopec supplies 80% of China’s fuel needs and is China’s largest refiner of crude oil. The company is looking for new foreign partners, expand its refining capacity and reduce operational costs. The company expects demand will remain strong in China and that oil prices will continue to rise throughout the second half of the year.

Here are a few highlights from the Bloomberg article, “Sinopec to Boost Expansion Abroad After Profit Surges to Record,” which you can access in full by clicking here.

“Sinopec’s main business is refining and it needs to increase its oil reserves and reduce its reliance on other oil producers,” said Larry Grace, an independent oil analyst based in Hong Kong. “There’s a government directive to increase overseas oil and gas assets.”

…

Sinopec gets almost all its revenue from refining and the sale and distribution of fuels. Oil production accounted for just over 2 percent of sales, according to its 2008 annual report. The company imports about 80 percent of the crude it processes.

…

Su said the company will accelerate its “go global” strategy.

Parent company China Petrochemical Corp. said on Aug. 18 it had concluded the C$8.3 billion ($7.7 billion) acquisition of Addax Petroleum Corp. to secure reserves in Iraq and Africa. China Petrochemical has assets in Russia, Angola, Ecuador, Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan and Myanmar.

Sinopec’s parent completed the purchase of Tanganyika Oil Co. for about $1.8 billion in December. Vancouver-based Tanganyika holds stakes in two Syrian production-sharing agreements covering the Oudeh and Tishrine/Sheikh Mansour blocks after expanding from Tanzania in 1996.

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Newswire: South-South / Emerging Market Cooperation

[China – ASEAN] – China to Boost Cooperation With Asean on Investments – Bloomberg

China wants to boost cooperation with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to develop trade and increase investment, said Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming.

[ASEAN] – Five Asean Nations May Form Rice-Trade Body, Thai Official Says – Bloomberg

Five Southeast Asian nations may set up a rice-trade association next year to cooperate in stabilizing rice prices, a Thai official said.

Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar will also cooperate on other issues related to food security and production, said Chiya Yimvilai, a spokesman at a meeting of Asean economic ministers in Bangkok. The countries would also work together on developing rice products, he said.

[Venezuela – Russia] – PDVSA, Russian Group to Start $30 Billion Oil Venture – Bloomberg

Petroleos de Venezuela SA and a group of Russian oil companies plan to spend $30 billion on a joint venture in Venezuela’s Orinoco region.

The 40-year venture will seek to produce crude in the Junin 6 area and may expand to other Orinoco blocks, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin told reporters in St. Petersburg today after meeting with Venezuelan Vice President Ramon Carrizalez. Russian investors will include OAO Gazprom, OAO Rosneft, OAO Lukoil, TNK-BP and OAO Surgutneftegaz. The venture will be signed “in the coming months,” Sechin said.

[Mexico – Uruguay] – Mexico/Uruguay sign strategic association accord and advance trade – MecroPress

Mexico president Felipe Calderón and Uruguay’s Tabare Vazquez signed on Friday in Montevideo a Strategic Association accord to strengthen political dialogue and bilateral trade relations in the framework of the 2004 free trade agreement.

[Mexico – Colombia – Venezuela – Ecuador] – Mexico offers to mediate between Colombia and Venezuela and Ecuador – MecroPress
Mexican president Felipe Calderón on an official visit to Colombia offered his country’s mediation in the conflict between Bogotá and neighbouring Ecuador and Venezuela.

[Peru – Brazil] – Brazilian President to visit Peru to strengthen strategic alliance – Andina
The next arrival to Lima of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will contribute to create a new strategic alliance to face Asian markets when signing several trade agreements, the President of Peru-Brazil Integration Chamber Miguel Vega Alvear.

“The arrival of Brazilian President will strengthen the progress achieved up to now in this Peru-Brazil strategic alliance and it will create a new stage in which both countries can face Asia-Pacific markets,”

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As promised… China steps up overseas investments in commodities

Aug 14, 2009 — State-owned Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. buys Australia’s Felix Resources Ltd. for about A$3.5 billion ($2.9 billion), reports Bloomberg

Aug 13, 2009 — Sinochem Corp., China’s biggest chemicals trader, makes an offer to buy to buy Emerald Energy Plc for 532 million pounds ($881 million). Giving Sinochem Corp., access to oil fields in Syria and Colombia, reports Bloomberg

“The Chinese don’t have enough nickel, don’t have enough oil, and they don’t have enough copper. There’s a crisis coming. They are going around the world buying up what they can. They’re preparing for a rainy day.” Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings and the author of books including “Investment Biker” and “Adventure Capitalist”, said in a telephone interview yesterday.

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