China becomes L America’s privileged partner: ECLAC official

Xinhua news reports,

China has become a “privileged partner of Latin America,” and the region needs to define a joint strategy to develop its ties with China, an official of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) said Wednesday.

The “post- (economic) crisis will find a bigger and more important China than the one it has been in the world economy,” said Osvaldo Rosales, ECLAC’s director for international trade and integration.

Citing the World Trade Organization’s report on Tuesday that China had displaced Germany in the first half of 2009 as a leading exporter, Rosales observed that “this has been reflected in its (China’s) growing relative presence in the world’s trade, mainly in Latin America.”

“The numbers of destinations and exporters show that China has become a privileged partner of Latin America,” Rosales told Xinhua in an interview.

This was because the Chinese government had “already defined the strategy for Latin America in its white book,” Rosales explained, adding that the region needed to do the same.

Regarding bilateral trade relations, Rosales worried about Latin America’s export structure, which focused on a few products and natural resources. He called for a diversification of the export basket.

“Latin America is in some ways linked with China, the world economy’s engine of the 21st century, but it is doing that with an export structure from the 20th century,” Rosales observed.

Click here to read the full story from Xinhua

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[Commodities] — Is the rally over?

Commodity Rally May Falter on Supply, Speculators

June 29 (Bloomberg) — Commodities, heading for the first quarterly advance in a year, may struggle to repeat their gains in the next three months as supply expands and speculators sell.

Nickel may average 29 percent less in the third quarter than now, crude oil 16 percent, copper 14 percent and gasoline 10 percent, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. Hedge funds and speculators cut their bets on higher prices by 23 percent in the two weeks ended June 23, the first back-to-back drop since March, based on an index using U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. The World Bank said June 22 the global recession will be deeper than it expected three months ago.

“Commodities have gotten a little ahead of themselves,” said Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps oversee $30 billion at Morgan Asset Management in Birmingham, Alabama. “As long as there’s uncertainty about growth, that’s going to be headwind commodities won’t be able to overcome.”

Commodities rose 14 percent this quarter, led by nickel, oil and sugar, after three consecutive declines, according to the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials. This year’s 57 percent advance in oil costs, combined with widening budget deficits, may cause another global slump, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economics professor who predicted the financial crisis.

Click here to access the full article from Bloomberg

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Newswire: China South America

[Peru – China] — Peru, China relations “at best moment”

Chinese ambassador to Peru, Gao Zhengyue, said that relations between his country and Peru “are at their best moment” in history.

According to him, both countries have deepened the confidence in the political, economic, technological educational, cultural, tourism and justice areas, among others.

The Chinese diplomat noted the increase of the economic, trade flow and bilateral investments, and highlighted the increase of the Chinese investments in Peru, with over seven billion dollars.

“I am convinced that with joint efforts the relations between our two brotherly countries will enter a new stage of development and reach a higher level in the two peoples’ benefit,” said Zhengyue.

[Latin America – China – Africa] — China’s new frontier

Chinese telecom-gear makers Huawei and ZTE have already conquered Africa and Asia. Next stop: Latin America.

(Fortune Magazine) — At phone operator Movistar’s sales offices in Buenos Aires, customers line up to buy high-speed wireless services to access the web on their mobile phones. Most Argentines don’t realize, though, that the company providing the gear for their broadband connections isn’t a longtime supplier to Latin America like Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, or Motorola, but a relative newcomer called Huawei.

China’s telecom suppliers are coming to the Americas. Pursuing the same formula they’ve used to win business throughout Asia and parts of Africa (selling cheap gear in low-income countries), equipment makers Zhong Xing Telecommunication Equipment (also known as ZTE) and Huawei are now getting a foothold in countries such as Argentina, Chile, and Colombia. Says Leandro Musciano, project director at Movistar Argentina, a unit of Spain’s Telefónica: “Price is important.”

[Caribbean – China] — China’s expanding relations with Latin America and the Caribbean

Commentary
By Odeen Ishmael

The recent visit of Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva to China in May 2009 reflected the Asian nation’s expanding economic and political influence in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). One year ago, the Brazilian government had announced that China would surpass the United States as its major business partner. The results of da Silva’s visit verified this after the two nations signed 13 agreements, including a $10 billion loan from the China Development Bank to Brazil’s state oil company Petrobras. Petrobras also concluded a deal with a subsidiary of China’s oil refiner Sinopec for the export of crude oil. A major commercial agreement will also see the beginning of huge poultry exports to China.

Brazil’s two-way trade with China, one of the few economies still growing despite the global crisis, reached US$3.2 billion in April, surpassing the $2.8 billion trade total with the US. So far this year, Brazilian exports to China grew 65 percent over the same period in 2008, rising from $3.4 billion to $5.6 billion.

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Peru ETF to start trading this month reports Bloomberg

Are you a international investor with a global perspective? Are you looking to get in on all the action down in Latin America? Well now is the time to consider jumping on board the “Peruvian growth miracle?”

Before you do however, I implore you to proceed with caution if you decide to park your hard earned currency in Peru. As always, it would be a good idea to do your own due diligence and listen to what your textbook, academic gut feeling has told you about Latin America since you started reading about continent in economic and finance classes you took in college.

Peru’s Lima General Index has sky rocketed a whoppin’ 95% this year due to the following reasons in particular (in my opinion)

a) The country’s investment grade debt rating

b) Rising metals prices; copper, gold, silver, etc (note I did not include Zinc here)

c) Optimism in Peru’s metropolitan middle and upper-middle class residents of Lima who partially feed the international excitement by telling stories of economic boom. Ask a university student of la Universidad de Lima, UPC, Universidad Pacifico or a employee at Banco Santander and they will probably (some of them at least) tell you of rising apartment buildings, new beach houses and cafes so full of customers you must wait to get a table. Yes, it is still difficult to find a job that pays well, but if you know anything about Peru this has been the case since the beginning of time…

d) Shrinking investment opportunities in the region because of western fears and dislike of Chavez in Venezuela, Correa in Ecuador, Morales in Bolivia and more recently Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in Argentina.

e) LIES… LIES… oh and yes, more LIES. Farid Matuk the previous head of INEI (Peru’s statistics office) and Otto from IncaKolaNews have been telling readers for months that you simply can not trust economic data from Peru. Alan Garcia has replaced the people working at the statistics office with those loyal to his political party and they have inherently changed the way statistics are collected and the way GDP and other economic indicators are calculated.

Here are some links to Farid Matuk and Otto’s recent observations of Peru’s economic picture. I will stick to English, but I highly recommend if you can read Spanish that you check out some of Matuk’s non-English posts.

Doubts grow about accuracy of Peru GDP numbers — Reuters Terry Wade

Peru’s Economic Model and Poverty Reduction: Is it Working — Farid Matuk

Farid Matuk Explains Peru’s False GDP Figures — INK

Now that you know one side, here’s the other. GAINS AND LOTS OF THEM.

Peru Lima General Index – 2 yr performance as of 6/4/09

It seems to me the majority of the international financial community have bought into Garcia’s lies and have come to believe Peru is a solid place to park your money.

This is despite, as Otto says, demand for base metals just simply does not add up. The Chinese are stockpiling their metals and eventually prices will have to go back down to reality. Check this article.

Despite this reality, investors and what they perceive can go a long way in financial markets. If investors jump on board, this new Peruvian ETF might begin to soar… albeit temporarily until reality sets in.

Benito’s conclusion: Invest with caution. I’ve included the Bloomberg article below, but if you like to access it directly, please click here.

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Peru ETF to Start Trading This Month, Global X Says (Update1)

By Veronica Navarro Espinosa

Peru’s first Exchange Traded Fund will start trading on the New York Stock Exchange by the “middle of June,” said the chief executive officer of Global X Management Company LLC, a New York-based asset manager.

“The stock market has risen a lot, investors are bullish, and that’s helping us,” Bruno del Ama, the New York-based CEO of Global X, said in a phone interview. “We’re giving access to the Peruvian market and in the future people can go short in Peru, which is an option that doesn’t exist today.”

Global X and Barclays Plc have been competing to introduce the first Peruvian ETF, aiming to lure global investors to the world’s best performing stock market this year. The funds issue a number of shares and trade throughout the day like stocks. Most are designed to passively track a benchmark equity index.

Peru’s Lima General Index has jumped 95 percent this year on speculation a rebound in prices of the country’s commodity exports will fuel growth amid the global recession. The index’s advance is the biggest among 92 world benchmarks tracked by Bloomberg, reversing a 60 percent plunge in 2008 that was the steepest in Latin America.

“It will create liquidity and that’s what this market lacks,” Carlos Rojas, who manages $160 million in Peruvian stocks and bonds for Compass Peru, said in a phone interview from Lima. “But it’ll all depend on the size. If it attracts less than $150 million, it’ll be a non-event.”

FTSE Peru 20

The new ETF will track the FTSE Peru 20, which will include the nation’s biggest commodity producers such as Maple Energy Plc., an oil and natural gas producer that has gained fourfold this year, the best performer in the index. Del Ama said other members include Austral Group SA, Peru’s biggest fishmeal producer, and Cia. de Minas Buenaventura SA, the largest precious-metals producer.

Resource companies account for 21 of the 36 stocks in the Lima index because Peru is the world’s third-largest producer of copper, zinc and tin, the biggest miner of silver and the fifth- largest of gold.

IShares, a unit of Barclays, is working on introducing its own Peruvian ETF, said Barclays spokeswoman Christine Hudacko in an e-mail today. There’s “no news on timing,” she said.

The iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund, managed by Barclays, is among the 10 most-traded ETFs in New York, with daily volume of about $1 billion, Barclays Global Investors’ chief executive for Latin America Daniel Gamba said in December. Trading in ETFs in Mexico now accounts for about 20 percent of average daily volume, Gamba said.

[Source] — Bloomberg

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Laying the foundation for a tri-nation Boliviaran mining giant in South America

[South-South Cooperation] — Ecuador, Venezuela, Bolivia

The Ecuadorian government announced plans yesterday of the establishment of a joint mining company with the country of Venezuela and possibly Bolivia. You can read all the vague details in this article from Chinamining.

“We are going to build a great mining company in association with Venezuela and perhaps with Bolivia to exploit some veins of mine ore returned to the State from private hands,”said Ecuadorian Minister of Mines and Petroleum Derlis Palacios.

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Newswire: Commodities with a added bit of South-South Energy Cooperation

[Uranium] — India Bids for Stakes in Russian, Kazakh Uranium Mines to Fuel Reactors
Nuclear Power Corp. of India is bidding for stakes in uranium mines in Russia and Kazakhstan, and offered to build reactors in central Asia, Chief Executive Officer S.K. Jain said.

“We’re trying to achieve stakes in mines,” Jain said today in an interview at a Moscow nuclear forum organized by Rosatom Corp., the country’s nuclear holding company. The company is discussing buying into sites including the untapped Elkon deposit in Russia’s Far East, he added.

India, which suffers peak power shortages of as much as 17 percent, needs uranium to fuel 28 planned reactors and meet a target of adding 40,000 megawatts of nuclear generation by 2020. The second most-populous nation will seek an annual 1,500 metric tons of uranium for 60 years to fuel new reactors, Jain said.

“We’re exploring the possibility of a long-term partnership and not only for uranium supplies,” he said. India proposed building 220- to 500-megawatt reactors in Kazakhstan, which doesn’t yet have any nuclear power plants, he added.

[Crude Oil] — Crude Oil Advances as U.S. Consumer Confidence Increases, Equities Climb
Crude oil rose to a six-month high after a report showed that U.S. consumer confidence jumped to the highest level since September, signaling demand may rebound.

[Copper] — Copper Climbs in N.Y. as U.S. Consumer Sentiment Jumps Most in Six Years
Copper prices rose in New York and London after a report showed U.S. consumer sentiment jumped this month to the most positive since September.

[Gold] — Gold May Climb to Record $1,250, Standard Bank Says: Technical Analysis
Gold may target a record $1,250 an ounce as a continuation head-and-shoulders pattern may be forming within a longer-term trend, Standard Bank Group Ltd. said, citing trading patterns.

[Platinum, Palladium] — Platinum, Palladium Fall in New York on Weak Auto-Industry Demand Outlook
Platinum fell the most in two weeks in New York on concern that auto-industry demand for the metal will take longer to recover than other parts of the economy. Palladium futures also declined.

[Corn] — Corn Falls as Dry Spell Allows U.S. Farmers to Accelerate Delayed Planting
Corn fell, erasing an earlier gain, on speculation that Midwest farmers accelerated plantings delayed by rain, improving prospects for output in the U.S., the world’s largest exporter.

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Weekend Newswire: Commodities

[Crude Oil] — Oil Falls on Speculation Recovery Will Falter, Reducing Global Fuel Demand
Crude oil fell the most in almost a month on concern the global economic recovery may falter, reducing demand for fuel.

[Natural Gas] — Nymex Gas Falls as Reports Show Industrial Demand Will Be Slow to Recover
Natural gas futures fell for a third day as reports showed that demand for the fuel from factories and power plants will be slow to recover during the recession.

[Copper] — Copper’s U-Shaped Base Signals Rise, StanChart Says: Technical Analysis
Copper may rise to levels not seen since October in the month ahead, as the metal forms a U-shaped base, Standard Chartered Bank said, citing trading patterns.

[Gold & Silver] — Gold Advances in N.Y. on Speculation Equity Rally May Stall; Silver Gains
Gold prices rose, extending a rally to two weeks, as investment demand increased on rising consumer prices and signs that a rally in U.S. equities may be ending. Silver futures fell.

[Platinum & Palladium] — Platinum Falls as Dim Auto Outlook Cuts Demand in N.Y.; Palladium Gains
Platinum prices fell as the U.S. auto- industry slump eroded demand for the metal used in pollution- control parts. Palladium rose for the first time this week.

[Steel] — China Steel Industry Likely to Post Loss in 2009, Baosteel Chairman Says
China’s steel industry may post a loss this year, Baosteel Group Corp. Chairman Xu Lejiang said at a conference in Shanghai today. Xu said the Chinese steel industry is oversupplied and faces severe structural problems that have been worsened by the financial crisis.

[Soybeans] — Soybeans Head for Third Weekly Gain as Demand Cuts U.S. Supply
Soybeans climbed, heading for a third weekly gain, on speculation that increased global demand may further reduce inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest grower and exporter of the crop.

[Investments] — Where Commodities Fit In Your Portfolio
Commodities are a great way to diversify your portfolio, but if you are considering allocating some money to the group, don’t expect to catch a draft in the near future, even if there are signs the worst of the global slowdown may be over.

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Jim Rogers: "We are going to have serious food shortages in a few years"

Jim Rogers sits down with Bloomberg host Haslinda Amin in his home base of Singapore. Haslinda gets a full twenty minutes to test his patience while she asks what his opinions are on investing in a variety of investment categories. Commodities. Currencies. North American Natural Gas. Yen Carry Trade. Agriculture. Equities. ETF’s.

As usual, Jim Rogers is sticking to what he knows best-raw materials. If you’re a new reader, or have not heard of Jim Rogers definitely run a search on the right of his name to bring up past posts and videos including him.

Part 1 /3

Part 2 / 3

Part 3 / 3

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Newswire: Commodities

[Crude Oil] — Oil Falls in New York on Speculation Increased Supplies Will Limit Gains
Crude oil fell on speculation that last week’s 10 percent advance will be undone as U.S. inventories climb and fuel consumption declines.

Oil followed equity markets lower today, reversing gains made last week after the U.S. economy lost fewer jobs than expected. Crude inventories rose to the highest since 1990 in the week ended May 1 as fuel consumption tumbled, an Energy Department report showed last week.

[Natural Gas] — Natural Gas Declines on Speculation 22% Advance Was Excessive
Futures fell for the first time in four days on speculation last week’s 22 percent rally was unjustified.

[Copper] — Copper Futures Decline for Third Straight Session as China’s Demand Eases
Copper prices fell for the third straight session in New York on signs that demand may ease in China, the world’s biggest user of industrial metals.

[Precious Metals] — Gold, Silver Fall in N.Y. as Investment Demand Slips on Signs of Recovery
Gold and silver prices dropped in New York on speculation that investment demand will decline as more signs emerge that the global recession may have touched bottom.

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