Commodities: Natural Gas Outlook

[Rigzone] — Natural Gas Prices and LNG’s Dirty Little Secret, by Allen Brooks

Optimism about the ending of the U.S. recession and its impact on future demand for natural gas coupled with positive comments from large domestic gas suppliers about the trend in gas supplies has ignited a rally in natural gas futures prices during the past week. Natural gas prices jumped from a low of $3.25 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) on April 27th to a recent high of $4.31 per Mcf last Friday. A near 33% rise in gas prices in such a short time-period reflects a severely oversold market. The dramatic price run-up may have more to do with commodity short-sellers than people buying into the view of a sustainable and healthy recovery for the market.

There were several very positive statements made by the CEOs of major natural gas producers about the changing supply/demand dynamics of the business on their company earnings conference calls with analysts. Mark Papa, CEO of EOG Resources, Inc. (EOGNYSE), said he expects the impact from the decline in gas-oriented drilling will result in natural gas production falling by 4.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by the end of the year.He believes the resulting North American natural gas production declines could be reversed by early in 2010 if $7 per Mcf gas prices return or the gas-directed rig count falls below 650. This view compares with that of the Petroleum Industry Research Association (PIRA) that believes gas production will be 3 Bcf/d lower at year end.

Equally bullish was Aubrey McClendon, CEO of Chesapeake Energy (CHK-NYSE), who sees gas storage being full by October and that gas production would be 10% lower at year-end compared to 2008. That implies natural gas production should fall by 4 Bcf/d. Should these estimates prove accurate, the supply drops would go most of, if not all, the way to wiping out the perceived supply/demand imbalance in the domestic gas market of about 5 Bcf/d due to the falloff in industrial and commercial consumption related to the economic recession and credit crisis.

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Newswire: South-South Cooperation

[China – Venezuela] — CNPC, Venezuela Plan to Build Two Oil Refineries in China
China National Petroleum Corp. and Venezuela plan to build two oil refineries in China, Jiang Jiemin, the president of the Chinese company, told reporters in Beijing today.

[China – Trinadad & Tobago] — Alutrint: Chinese labor needed due to lack of local expertise
China’s EXIM bank placed as a condition on its consent to provide a US$400mn loan to the Trinidad & Tobago government to build the Alutrint aluminum smelter – in the La Brea region of Trinidad island – that the project hire Chinese contractor CMEC to provide labor and technology for the plant, Alutrint manager of communications and community relations Josieann Richards told BNamericas.

[China – Russia] — Chinese Envoy to Russia: Oil Pipeline Serves Strategic Goals of Both Sides
The construction of the China-Russia oil pipeline conforms with the strategic goals of China and Russia to diversify the former’s energy imports and latter’s energy exports, Chinese Ambassador to Russia Liu Guchang has said.

[South Korea – Peru] — Peru hopes to complete 70% of FTA talks with Korea this week
Peru hopes to complete 70 percent of free trade negotiations with South Korea this week because of the similarities found between the two negotiating teams, allowing them to progress quickly, Peruvian chief negotiator Nathan Nadramija said Monday.

During the first round of FTA Negotiations in Seoul on March 16, both countries successfully concluded four chapters relating to electronic commerce, border services, as well as two other chapters related to institutional issues.

[India – Argentina – Bolivia] — Jindal Begins Producing Gas in Bolivia for Export to Argentina
India’s Jindal Steel & Power has started producing natural gas in Bolivia that will be exported to Argentina, a company executive told Efe on Monday.

Luis Carlos Kinn, manager of Jindal subsidiary Gas to Liquids Internacional S.A., confirmed the successful completion of the first production test at the well drilled in the El Palmar field, some 50 kilometers (31 miles) from Santa Cruz, the capital of the likenamed eastern province.

[Chile – Bolivia] — Chile Open to Tunnel Proposal Giving Bolivia Access to Sea
The Chilean government is willing to study the proposal by a group of architects that would provide landlocked Bolivia with access to the sea through a tunnel to an artificial island in the Pacific Ocean.

[Venezuela – Angola] — Venezuelan Government Bank BANDES To Open Branch in Angola
Jesus Alberto Garcia, Venezuelan ambassador to Angola, stated in an interview with Radio Nacional de Angola that Banco de Desarrollo Económico y Social de Venezuela (BANDES), the state development bank of Venezuela, will open a branch in Angola. He added, “This is one of the main things President Chavez wants to do with Africa.” Branches of BANDES outside of Latin America and the Caribbean include Syria and the Republic of Mali.

[Latin America – Spain] — Spain Wants Closer Ties with Latin America
Spain’s King Juan Carlos and Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said Monday that the upcoming bicentennials of Latin American independence should be used to promote Spanish and European Union ties to the region.

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